Finland vs. USA takes place tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Bell Centre in Montreal. It will be broadcast on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+.
After a nail-biting first game last night in the 4 Nations Face-Off, we pick things up with Finland taking on the USA.
If last night was any indication of what to expect in this tournament between Canada and Sweden, we may have our hands full for tonight’s matchup.
Check out my pick and prediction for Finland vs. USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
| Finland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +114 | 5.5 -135o / +114u | +280 |
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 5.5 -135o / +114u | -355 |
- Finland vs. USA puck line: Finland +1.5, USA -1.5
- Finland vs. USA over/under: 5.5
- Finland vs. USA moneyline: Finland ML +280, USA ML -355
Finland Preview
I think many view Finland as the weakest country in this tournament, but I advise you not to sleep on the Finns.
They have a deadly three-man rotation in the middle with captain Aleksander Barkov, Sebastian Aho, and Roope Hintz. To top it off, dynamic wingers like Mikko Rantanen and Patrik Laine are players you can’t give open space to.
Rantanen is one of the league’s most underappreciated superstars, averaging 100 points over the past three seasons. He has consistently fallen under Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s shadow in Colorado. And while he hasn’t scored a ton in Carolina, he’s not someone you want to let up on. He’ll suit up alongside Aho on the second line, which adds a different dynamic to Finland’s top six.
I am concerned about Finland’s defensive corps holding up against the high-end talent it’ll be facing throughout the tournament. Esa Lindell is the Finns’ likely number one defenseman, and while he’s not a weak defender by any means, he fits better as a second-pairing D-man.
That’s where goaltending comes into play. Finland will roll out Juuse Saros, who has consistently been a Vezina Trophy finalist. Playing his whole career in Nashville, Saros has been known to take on a large volume of shots — especially over the past couple of years.
However, if Finland’s defense struggles to contain the Americans, Saros may be in for a world of hurt.
USA Preview
USA may have the most well-rounded squad in the tournament, and I don’t think that’s an exaggeration.
Canada may be the most top-heavy, but the Americans have everything from elite forwards and stable defensemen to impenetrable goaltending. While it’s a best-on-best tournament, two of the three other teams cover two of the three areas at a high level.
Just how deep is this squad? Well, Kyle Connor, who is sixth in scoring, is taking reps on the second power play unit. Auston Matthews, Jake Guentzel, and Matthew Tkachuk will man the first power play up front, with Jack Eichel and Adam Fox heading the point.
The defensive unit may not stand out to the casual fan. I don’t think most are aware of how good Fox, Charlie McAvoy, and Zach Werenski are, and to top it off, 22-year-old Brock Faber may be a future Norris Trophy winner.
Barring any changes, Connor Hellebuyck will get the start for the USA, and he’s far and away the best goalie in the NHL. The two-time Vezina winner and front-runner for this season is posting a league-best .925 SV% (minimum 20 starts) and a 27.8 GSAx.
Finland vs. USA Prediction and Pick
It’s tricky betting on this game and getting good value because the odds are so overwhelmingly in USA’s favor.
So with that, we’re going to get crazy with this bet. I’m putting my eggs in Hellebuyck’s basket, especially considering the defensemen protecting him.
DraftKings has a shutout (or Finland Under 0.5 goals) at +650. Given the volatility of it, I’m going to put .25 units on it, but I think it’s a bet worth risking. Hellebuyck is that good, America’s forwards are elite, and its defense is underappreciated.
For the rest of my unit, I’m going to place .75 on the under. I’ve mentioned in past Best Bet articles that I’m wary of picking unders for 5.5 games, but this one at +114 is an interesting and tantalizing option.
Even if Hellebuyck lets one in, I don’t see much else getting past him. And while Finland’s defense isn’t the strongest, Saros can hold his own in the crease.
Picks: Finland Under 0.5 Goals (+650) — .25 units
Under 5.5 (+114) — .75 units
