The Sweden vs. USA match will be at TD Garden in Boston this Monday at 8 p.m. ET. It will be broadcast on TNT and TruTV and streamed on MAX.
As we enter the final day of round robin play, the USA has clinched a spot in the championship game after defeating Canada. Sweden has had terrible luck losing, both of its games in overtime.
Check out my pick and prediction for Sweden vs. USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Sweden vs. USA Prediction, Odds, Pick
| Sweden Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 5.5 -125o / +105u | +164 |
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 5.5 -125o / +105u | -198 |
- Sweden vs. USA puck line: Sweden +1.5, USA -1.5
- Sweden vs. USA over/under: 5.5
- Sweden vs. USA moneyline: Sweden ML +170, USA ML -205
Sweden Preview
Sweden’s ability to stay alive in games has given it an inkling of hope in this tournament.
After hanging with the Canadians on Wednesday, it was disappointing to see the Swedes fall to Finland in overtime, but most of that loss was due to uncertainty in net. Filip Gustavsson gave up two goals on four shots and was ultimately pulled after 20 minutes because of an illness.
Mika Zibanejad and Adrian Kempe have consistently been Sweden’s top players, with Zibanejad making the biggest impact on Saturday’s game. Against Finland, he registered six shots on goal, won 83% of his faceoffs, and was second on the team in expected goals behind Filip Forsberg.
Forsberg didn’t show up on the scoresheet, but his presence made up for it with two blocked shots and three shots on goal. I was expecting him to be one of the biggest threats on this team leading up to the tournament, though he hasn’t registered a point yet. Perhaps the drought ends tonight.
I’ll keep an eye on who takes the crease for this do-or-die game for the Swedes. Linus Ullmark did a solid job in place of Gustavsson, so perhaps coach Sam Hallam runs with Ullmark again.
You can’t go wrong either way, though I slightly favor Gustavsson. However, if he’s still not feeling well, Ullmark is probably your best bet.
USA Preview
Montreal was in shock. After decades of dominance, Canada finally fell to the United States of America with “Free Bird” blasting through the speakers.
USA Hockey is on fire right now.
It pulverized Finland in Game 1 and took Canada to the house on the back of physicality, elite goaltending, and well-timed goals. Not only that, in unprecedented fashion, the Americans started the game with three fights featuring Matthew and Brady Tkachuk and J.T. Miller in the first nine seconds.
Jake Guentzel and Dylan Larkin were incredible all night, as Guentzel got the States on the scoreboard and Larkin hammered home the game-winner.
On the defensive side of the puck, it’s hard to imagine a pairing hotter than Jaccob Slavin and Brock Faber. They were undoubtedly elite, mostly matched up against the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, and Connor McDavid.
I’ll be brief with my analysis of Connor Hellebuyck. As I predicted, Hellebuyck stole the show. He was confident in net, didn’t waver, and handled all of his rebounds with ease.
In MoneyPuck’s “Deserve To Win O’ Meter,” Canada was listed at 75%, which means the difference maker was mostly Hellebuyck. Additionally, he’s faced 47 shots in this tournament and has only let in two goals, which is akin to a .960 SV%.
Sweden vs. USA Prediction and Pick
Depending on how the 1 p.m. game goes, I think Sweden is going to throw the kitchen sink at the U.S.
But one thing to keep an eye on is Sweden’s goaltending situation. Ullmark and Gustavsson are more than capable, so both can handle USA’s firepower, but I’ll actually give the slight edge to Ullmark due to Gustavsson’s uncertain health.
How I bet on tonight’s game will really depend on how Canada vs. Finland goes. If that game goes into overtime, then this matchup gets juicy, because if Sweden wins, we would have a USA vs. Sweden final. Because of that, I think this game turns into a chess match.
If Canada vs. Finland ends in regulation, then I’m hammering the over on USA vs. Sweden. USA has made it clear that it doesn’t plan to let its foot off the gas, and there’s zero incentive for Sweden to play for anything.
Think about it: the NHL season isn’t over. If Sweden is completely out of the hunt, why would its players risk a potential injury that could ruin their season? It could very well turn into an exhibition game at that point, and there may not be a whole lot of defense.
Picks: If Canada/Finland goes into overtime — No Goal in First 10 Minutes (+120) | If CAN/FIN ends in regulation — Over 5.5 (-125)
