Zheng – Vekic Odds
| Zheng Odds | -250 |
| Vekic Odds | +200 |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Time | How to Watch | Saturday, 6 a.m. ET | Peacock |
| Odds via BetMGM. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here. | |
Qinwen Zheng is into the Olympic final after a shocking 6-2, 7-5 victory over World No. 1 Iga Swiatek.
Now, Zheng will face Donna Vekic, who dismissed Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 6-4, 6-0 in the semifinals for her chance at a gold medal.
Read on for my full Qinwen Zheng – Donna Vekic pick ahead of this Olympics gold medal matchup.
Zheng Looking to Build Upon Upset
Zheng won 55% of her service points and was broken three times in her win over Swiatek. In addition, the Chinese won 56% of her return points, breaking on six occasions.
These are particularly impressive numbers given that Swiatek was 25-1 on clay in 2024 coming into that match.
Zheng improved her own clay-court record to 16-4 this season with the win over the Pole. Zheng is currently on a 10-match winning streak, which includes lifting the trophy in Palermo last week.
As a professional, Zheng also has a strong 81-25 mark on the dirt.
So, what makes Zheng so successful on clay? The 21-year old has a big first serve, with a top-five mark in terms of aces and the percentage of first serves won and a top-10 mark with regards to the percentage of service points and service games won this year.
She also has easy power from both wings, although particularly with her forehand. She can take the racquet out of her opponents' hands with her high-octane game.
Zheng's rally tolerance is much stronger than one would think, as the Chinese can successfully engage in extended rallies and showcases excellent placement around the court.
The problem for Zheng is that on clay she can sometimes become too passive and miss opportunities to finish points with her power.
In addition, while the Chinese anticipates fairly well, she's not the quickest player on the court.
Vekic Keeping Her Red-Hot Form
In her victory over Schmiedlova, Vekic won 73% of her service points and didn't face a break point. This is particularly impressive on the slow red clay of Roland Garros. In addition, the Croat won 53% of her return points, breaking the Slovak's serve on four occasions
It was yet another win for Vekic, who is now 13-2 over her last 15 matches overall, which encompasses her Wimbledon semifinal appearance, as well.
While many of those victories were on grass, Vekic has dropped just one set this week. The 28-year old also has an 8-4 record on the dirt in 2024, with a solid 67-56 record on clay for her career.
With the Croat in this form, surface doesn't end up mattering very much.
Vekic has a huge first serve, coming in the top-10 this season (so far) for aces and the percentage of first serves won.
While this hasn't always been the case in her career, Vekic has done an excellent job of limiting her unforced errors and playing with controlled aggression from the ground.
Vekic has always had powerful groundstrokes, with her forehand particularly potent, she just hasn't always been able to maintain her rally tolerance.
Unlike Zheng, however, Vekic is more aggressive from the ground and wants to finish points more quickly. Yet, she has still done a great job of maintaining her patience and not pulling the trigger at the wrong times.
This is still a concern for the Vekic camp, as is the Croat's mediocre movement.
Zheng – Vekic Pick
Zheng's form, including her stunning win over Swiatek, has allowed her to be the clear favorite here, but this line has gone too far.
Vekic has been one of the best players this summer and has dialed in her power extraordinarily well, both on serve and from the ground.
She should be able to use her big serve and "serve plus ones" to keep the scoreboard pressure on the Chinese, waiting for her chances on return.
The Croat, as confident in herself as she is, should effectively punish Zheng when the 21-year old gets passive during baseline exchanges, ripping control of the point from the Chinese during these neutral-ball exchanges.
It's also worth mentioning that Zheng has competed in six WTA or Slam singles finals during her career and has never won one of those finals in straight sets.
This should especially be the case against an in-form power player who shouldn't give her too many chances on return.
