Sunday Afternoon Update
2 p.m. ET: Democratic primary odds have held steady since the latest round of primaries and caucuses, with Joe Biden still a heavy -2500 favorite (bet $2,500 to win $100) to win the nomination according to European book Betfair.
Biden's victories this past Tuesday boosted his odds from -1000 to -2500, or from an 83.6% implied probability to 88.8%.
That means Bernie Sanders is now a betting longshot at +2500 odds (3.6% implied probability).
Find the latest odds via Betfair below.
Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden: -2500, 88.8% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +1600; 5.4% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +2500; 3.6% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +5000; 1.8% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +25000, 0.4% implied probability
If you're new to betting, -2500 means that you would have to bet $2,500 on the favorite Joe Biden to profit $100 if he wins, whereas +2500 means that if you bet $100 on the underdog Bernie Sanders, you'd profit $2,500 if he wins.
Wednesday Morning Update
10 a.m. ET: After securing three big wins earlier on Tuesday evening — in Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi — Joe Biden added a victory in Idaho.
The night wasn't a total sweep for Biden, who was favored by the betting market to win all six states that voted on Tuesday: Bernie Sanders won the North Dakota caucus, albeit the state with the fewest delegates of the six that voted. And as of writing, Sanders narrowly leads Biden (by less than 1%) in Washington, where two-thirds of the precincts are reporting and mail-in ballots are still expected to be counted over the coming days.
But even without the sweep, Biden boosted his odds to win the nomination substantially according to European sportsbook Betfair, which lists him as a -2500 favorite (bet $2,500 to win $100; 88.8% implied improbability). Sanders, meanwhile, has slid even further back from +1400 odds late on Tuesday night to +2500 (bet $100 to win $2,500; 3.6% implied probability).
Below are the full odds to win the Democratic nomination as of Wednesday morning and via Betfair.
Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds
New to betting? Here's how to interpret the odds: -2500 means that you would have to bet $2,500 on the favorite Joe Biden to profit $100 if he wins, whereas +2500 means that if you bet $100 on the underdog Bernie Sanders, you'd profit $2,500 if he wins.
- Joe Biden: -2500, 88.8% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +1600; 5.4% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +2500; 3.6% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +5000; 1.8% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +25000, 0.4% implied probability
Tuesday Night Update
Joe Biden followed up Super Tuesday with another set of big wins to pad his lead in the race for the 2020 Democratic nomination.
As of 11:30 p.m. ET, Biden has officially won three of the six states that voted on Tuesday: Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi. The former Vice President is also projected to win the most delegates in Idaho, and is still within one percent of Bernie Sanders in Washington, where two-thirds of precincts are reporting as of writing.
With the latest wave of victories, Biden is now a -2500 betting favorite to secure the Democratic nomination according to European sportsbook Betfair — odds that translate to an 87.8% implied probability of winning. For context on how Tuesday's results impacted the betting market, Biden entered the day as a -1000 favorite.
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Sanders does have a narrow lead in Washington and is projected to win the North Dakota caucus as of writing, but the latter state features only 14 delegates, tied for the fewest among the 50 states. And even if he finishes with a majority of Washington's 89 delegates, Sanders still trails Biden 812 to 655 as of 11:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Sanders is down to a +1400 underdog after starting the day at +800, giving him only a 6.1% implied probability of winning the nomination.
Now let's take a look at the full 2020 Democratic Primary odds (via Betfair).
2020 Democratic Primary Odds
New to betting? Here's how to interpret the odds: -2500 means that you would have to bet $2,500 on the favorite Joe Biden to profit $100 if he wins, whereas +1400 means that if you bet $100 on the underdog Bernie Sanders, you'd profit $1,400 if he wins.
- Joe Biden: -2500, 87.8% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +1400, 6.1% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +2200; 4.0% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +5000; 1.8% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +25000, 0.4% implied probability
