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Jil Teichmann vs. Bernarda Pera Odds
| Teichmann Odds | -280 |
| Pera Odds | +210 |
| Over/Under | 20.5 |
| Time | 8:30 a.m. ET |
| Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here. | |
Bernarda Pera comes into Roland Garros off the back of a successful clay-court season.
Pera went 7-3 on clay this season and made the final of the Karlsruhe WTA Challenger a couple weeks ago, falling 2-6, 4-6 to Mayar Sherif.
Last week, Pera played in the WTA Strasbourg event where she beat Elena Gabriela Ruse to start off her tournament, but lost in the round of 16 to Karolina Pliskova.
Against Ruse, Pera converted four-of-five break points, but she struggled in this department against Pliskova. The American generated 15 break points in that match, but only won three of those break-point opportunities.
Pera has a 71% winning percentage on clay in her career, 19% higher than her hard-court winning percentage and 27% higher than her grass-court winning percentage.
It's clear that Pera's game best suits the dirt and her results this season prove it. Pera was 4-6 on the hard courts before this clay season, but has since turned her season around.
Pera's heavy, lefty forehand has done a lot of damage in recent weeks. She's able to dictate from the baseline with her forehand with controlled aggression.
Her backhand is also solid and doesn't break down easily. Pera understands how to construct points on clay and has easy power, but can become erratic from the baseline at times.
Jil Teichmann had an excellent clay-court season. Despite this, questions remain, as Teichmann retired in the quarterfinals of Rome against Daria Kasatkin in her most recent match.
Teichmann went 8-3 during the clay season, making the semifinals of Madrid and the quarterfinals of Rome.
The Swiss has done a great job recently on return. In less than four completed matches in Rome, which included matches against big servers like Karolina Pliskova and Elena Rybakina, Teichmann generated 57 break points. She broke serve in that tournament 24 times.
Like Pera, Teichmann does her best work on the dirt. Her 66% winning percentage on clay is much higher than both her winning percentage on hard courts (51%) and grass (20%).
The slower, higher-bouncing surface works well given Teichmann's game.
Much like her opponent, Teichmann also has a lefty forehand that is the basis of her game.
Teichmann's game does rely more on her movement and counterpunching skills compared to the American, however. She does a great job of placing her forehand in uncomfortable positions for her opponents and making things awkward.
The world No. 24 is very consistent from both wings and moves very well. Her ability to scramble around the court and turn defense into offense is superb and she can also change the pace of play with her variety.
Betting Value
While both players have heavy forehands, Pera will likely be the more aggressive of the two. She'll be looking to dictate, while Teichmann will defend and counterpunch more, trying to take Pera out of her comfort zone.
Pera is hitting her forehand well in recent weeks and has had stretches where she is dominating from the baseline and is nearly unplayable.
However, she hasn't been able to consistently produce that level of play.
Both players have been excellent with regards to attacking second serves and they will need that to continue in this match.
Teichmann is just 70th in the world in second-serve win percentage at only 46.6% on the year. Pera is 100th this season in second-serve win percentage at 44.2% second serves won.
The favorite won just 32% of her second-serve points and 42% of her service points overall in the loss to Kasatkina in Rome.
While she was injured in that match, whether or not there are lingering effects of that injury remain to be seen. Teichmann didn't look like herself in the previous match against Rybakina either, bailing out on rallies at times and only winning 53% of her service points.
While Pera has played lower-level competition compared to Teichmann this clay-court season, some of her wins look better in hindsight.
In Saint Melo, she beat Oceane Dodin (Strasbourg semifinalist) and Sherif (Karlsruhe winner). In Karlsruhe, Pera defeated Nastasja Mariana Schunk (one set away from qualifying for Roland Garros) and Jule Neimeier (qualified for Roland Garros).
Over in Strasbourg, Pera defeated Ruse, who was 20-8 on clay last season. That's enough for me to get behind her here.
Pick: Pera +4.5 games (-125)
