The round of 16 at the French Open has been spectacular and the fun continues on Monday!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's women’s matchups — Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Sara Sorribes Tormo and Ons Jabeur vs Bernarda Pera.
Read on for my 2023 French Open picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing French Open odds.
French Open Odds, Picks
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-150) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo (+122)
5 a.m. ET
Beatriz Haddad Maia saved a match point in her 5-7, 6-4, 7-5 victory over Ekaterina Alexandrova. Haddad Maia won just 54% of her service points, getting broken seven times. The Brazilian took advantage of 12 Alexandrova double faults, winning 50% of her return points and breaking on eight occasions.
Haddad Maia is now 9-4 this season on clay, with an impressive 205-102 career-record on the dirt. She has served poorly in her past two matches, but her heavy, lefty forehand has allowed her to dictate play and she's strong at the net. And her clay point construction is strong.
However, besides her recent service woes, Haddad Maia's backhand has also been very shaky.
Sorribes Tormo was fortunate Elena Rybakina withdrew from their third-round matchup. But, in the second round, Sorribes Tormo demonstrated excellent form, beating Petra Martic 6-4, 6-1. Sorribes Tormo won just 48% of her service points in the match, but she won a ridiculous 69% of her return points, breaking eight times.
Gaining form after her foot ailment, Sorribes Tormo has a 12-5 mark in 2023 on clay. As a professional, she has an excellent 235-117 record on the surface. Sorribes Tormo lacks power, but she is a physical, gritty player. The Spaniard is ultra-fit, quick, consistent and absorbs pace effectively. Her variety is outstanding, whether it be her backhand slice or touch.
Haddad Maia's backhand is a major liability in its current state and she struggles to play aggressive from that wing. And Haddad Maia has had stretches of matches where she's overcooked her forehand.
Given these deficiencies, Sorribes Tormo is a nightmare opponent. First, Sorribes Tormo should be successful in taking advantage of Haddad Maia's recent service dips. In addition, the Spaniard is going to force Haddad Maia to work very hard from the baseline.
Sorribes Tormo should neutralize the Brazilian's forehand with her defense and get the ball onto Haddad Maia's backhand. And Haddad Maia, becoming frustrated, should start pressing during baseline exchanges.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo +2.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
Ons Jabeur (-450) vs Bernarda Pera (+320)
5 a.m. ET
Jabeur came back from a set down to defeat Olga Danilovic 4-6, 6-4, 6-2. Despite winning just 47% of her second serves and getting broken four times, Jabeur won 68% of her first serves. The Tunisian also won 47% of her first-serve returns and broke on six occasions.
She has a 10-2 record on clay in 2023. Since returning from a calf ailment in Stuttgart, Jabeur has a 3-1 record. Jabeur, has been successful on the dirt historically, with a 161-63 career-record. The Tunisian places her serve well and has a big forehand that she hits with power and precision. Jabeur's variety is excellent, whether it be her cutting backhand slice, touch shots or angles.
But, Jabeur's backhand can break down and she needs time to produce her variety. In addition, the Tunisian is not a great mover.
Bernarda Pera beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto 6-4, 7-6(2) to advance in Paris. Pera won just 52% of her service points, getting broken on nine occasions. But, the American won 59% of her return points, breaking seven times.
After going 19-6 on clay last season, Pera is 8-4 on the dirt this year. Overall, Pera has a strong 244-100 record on the surface. The American has a fairly big lefty serve and dictates play with her forehand. Pera plays an aggressive style, attempting to power through her opposition, even from her backhand wing.
However, Pera sometimes lacks patience on court, with suspect rally tolerance, particularly from her backhand side.
Pera's heavy, lefty forehand can go cross-court into Jabeur's weaker wing in her backhand. The Tunisian likes to be the one in charge, dictating play from the baseline and keeping the ball on her forehand wing. But, given Pera's aggressive style, she won't allow Jabeur to do this, instead dictating baseline points herself.
Jabeur also needs time to produce her variety. The American won't give Jabeur this time, rushing her from the ground. And her very aggressive game won't give Jabeur much baseline rhythm.
Pick: Pera +5.5 games (-145 via BetMGM)
