The US Open is off to an incredible start and the fun continues on Tuesday!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups —Daria Kasatkina vs Alycia Parks and Yulia Putintseva vs Martina Trevisan.
Read on for my 2023 US Open expert picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Odds, Picks
Daria Kasatkina (-700) vs Alycia Parks (+470)
2:15 p.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina last played in Cincinnati (hard), falling 3-6, 3-6 to Aryna Sabalenka in the round of 16. Kasatkina won just 48% of her service points, getting broken five times. The Russian won just 31% of her return points and broke twice.
While Kasatkina is just 11-11 record on hard this season, the Russian has gone 6-3 during the summer hard-court swing. For her career, Kasatkina has a strong 185-122 record on the surface. Kasatkina lacks firepower but she's still able to dictate at times with the placement of her groundstrokes.
She is very fit, anticipates well, counterpunches effectively and has a high tennis IQ, out-maneuvering her opposition.
Alycia Parks fell 1-6, 7-6(5), 6-7(0) to Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the second round of Cincinnati. Parks won just 49% of her service points, getting broken on eight occasions. However, the American was all over Sasnovich's serve, winning 57% of her second-serve returns and breaking five times.
Parks has had an uneven season, which is reflected in her 11-9 hard-court record in 2023. Parks is 92-81 on hard courts as a professional, although it's worth noting she's had a ton of indoor hard-court success. Parks has a massive first serve and plays high-risk, low-margin tennis. When the American is on, she's very tough to handle.
However, given how little margin-of-error she gives herself, Parks' game can go off the boil very quickly. Her rally tolerance is extremely questionable and she's not a great mover.
Parks has a big first serve, but Kasatkina is an excellent returner and should be able to muscle back many of Parks' big first deliveries. And once she does, the Russian is a massive edge in rallies.
Kasatkina is much more consistent from the baseline, she's a better mover and she has the tennis IQ to keep the ball out of Parks' strike zone and prevent the American from teeing off from the baseline.
Kasatkina's ability to keep points alive and counterpunch will be huge in this matchup. Parks won't be able to win many easy points, which should frustrate the American and force her to go for more than she should.
Finally, Kasatkina's overall Elo rating is 232 points above Parks' and her hard-court Elo is 182.3 points high than the American's.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
Yulia Putintseva (-125) vs Martina Trevisan (+105)
1 p.m. ET
Yulia Putintseva last competed in Cincinnati, where she lost 1-6, 3-6 Xiyu Wang in the final qualifying round. Putintseva was underpowered against Wang, winning just 44% of her service points and getting broken five times. The Kazakh won just 37% of her return points, breaking just once.
Putintseva is 10-1o on hard courts for the year, with a solid 229-195 professional-record on the surface. Putintseva lacks power, but is tactically sound and gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes.
Putintseva uses her heavy forehand to spread the court, although her backhand is fairly solid. The Kazakh keeps the ball out of her opponents' strike zones with her excellent variety.
Martina Trevisan most recently got into the Cleveland (hard) draw as a lucky loser, but retired to Peyton Stearns , 1-6, 5-4, in her first match of the main draw. Trevisan won only 25% of her second serves in the match and was broken six times. The Italian did win 59% of her second-serve returns, breaking on four occasions, however.
Trevisan is 9-9 in 2023 on hard courts, with just a 58-64 career record on the surface. While Trevisan has shown a higher level on hard courts this season than in the past, she is still far worse on hard compared to clay. Opponents can rush Trevisan's heavy, lefty forehand and her forehand sits up on hard courts. The Italian also doesn't move quite as well on hard and her backhand is a liability.
Putintseva has much more experience and more comfortable on hard courts. The Kazakh also has the more dynamic game, compared to Trevisan.
Putintseva has the consistency to match Trevisan from the baseline and has more weapons at her disposal from the ground, whether it be her touch, slices, or ability to change the pace of the point.
Trevisan's backhand is a massive liability and should be the weakest shot on the court. Putintseva, using her excellent point construction, should be able to effectively target that wing and draw out errors from the Italian.
