The first round of the US Open continues on and there are more fascinating matchups on tap!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups —Fernandez vs Alexandrova and Tsurenko vs Jacquemot.
Read on for my 2023 US Open picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Odds, Picks
Leylah Fernandez (-115) vs Ekaterina Alexandrova (-105)
11 .a.m. ET
Leylah Fernandez made the quarterfinals of Cleveland (hard) last week, but lost 3-6, 2-6 to Tatjana Maria. Fernandez won just 47% of her service points and was broken five times. In addition, the Canadian only won 33% of her return points and broke twice.
Fernandez, who made the 2021 US Open final, is 107-61 for her career and 19-11 this season on hard. However, don't let Fernandez's record this season fool you, her level of play has been far from impressive. While the Canadian does have a heavy, lefty forehand that she uses to dictate from the baseline. But, Fernandez has looked underpowered on her serve and from the baseline, with her backhand a major liability.
Ekaterina Alexandrova most recently made the final of Cleveland, but fell 6-3, 4-6, 4-6 to Sara Sorribes Tormo. Despite having a big serve, Alexandrova won just 51% of her service points in the match, getting broken six times. The Russian did win 44% of her return points and broke serve on five occasions.
Alexandrova is now 11-8 in 2023 on hard courts, with a solid 202-119 record on the surface as a professional. Alexandrova, typically, has a big first serve and positions herself in offensive positions from the baseline. The Russian tries to dictate play, especially with her forehand. The problem for Alexandrova is that her second serve can leak double faults and her rally tolerance can dip at times, as was the case when facing Sorribes Tormo's excellent defensive skills.
This line is surprising to me, as Alexandrova is in the better recent form and has the power to give Fernandez fits.
Fernandez's return and defensive abilities from the baseline are both at a lower level compared to Sorribes Tormo. Alexandrova should find more success from her first serve and should be able to more easily finish off points from the baseline.
Fernandez, this season especially, has left too many serves and groundstrokes sit up in the court, waiting to be smacked. And she isn't getting the depth she needs to be successful. Alexandrova should take advantage of this.
Finally, Alexandrova's overall Elo rating is 104 points higher than her hard-court Elo is 39.2 points above the Canadian's.
Pick: Alexandrova ML (-105 via PointsBet)
Lesia Tsurenko (-350) vs Elsa Jacquemot (+240)
1 p.m. ET
Lesia Tsurenko last played in Cincinnati (hard), where she fell 1-6, 6-4, 3-6 in her opening match against Taylor Townsend. Tsurenko won just 51% of her service points and was broken on seven occasions. The Ukrainian did win 59% of her second-serve returns, breaking four times.
Tsurenko is an incredible 22-6 on hard courts this year, 280-170 career-record on the surface. Tsurenko doesn't have a big serve, but does a great job of getting consistent depth from the ground. The Ukrainian can hit into openings that she creates for herself and can even effectively dictate with her backhand. She anticipates where her opponents are going well and has a high tennis IQ.
Elsa Jacquemot qualified for the US Open, beating Arianne Hartono 7-6(3), 6-1 in the final qualifying round. Despite winning 48% of her second serves, Jacquemot won 76% of her first serves and was only broken twice. On return, the Frenchwoman won 57% of her first-serve returns and broke on five occasions.
Jacquemot is now 11-10 in 2023 on hard courts, with a similar 52-46 record on hard as a professional. Jacquemot has a good first serve and is a consistent, fit player from the baseline. The Frenchwoman's drop shots are also a strength of her game. With that said, Jacquemot is not the most dynamic athlete, often looking stiff on the court, lacks put-away power and is too defensive in her mindset on court.
Tsurenko has the returning skills consistency and anticipation to get Jacquemot's first serves back into play. She also has the consistency and placement on her groundstrokes to hang with the Frenchwoman from the baseline to prevent her from taking control.
The Ukrainian also has the biggest weapon on the court in her backhand. Tsurenko should be able to dictate baseline play from this wing and push Jacquemot around the court.
In addition, Tsurenko's overall Elo rating is 373.6 points higher than Jacquemot's and her hard-court Elo is 378.4 points above the Frenchwoman's.
Pick: Tsurenko -1.5 sets (-120 via BetMGM)
