The first round of the US Open is here and there are plenty of fascinating matches to come on day one!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups —Sorribes Tormo vs Kalinina and Kvitova vs Bucsa.
Read on for my 2023 US Open picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Odds, Picks
Sara Sorribes Tormo (-145) vs Anhelina Kalinina (+110)
12:15 p.m. ET
Anhelina Kalinina defeated Ana Bogdan 6-2, 6-2 in her opening match in Cleveland, before withdrawing from the event with an unknown ailment. However, against Bogdan, Kalinina won 70% of her first-serve points and was only broken once, while winning 51% of her return points and breaking five times.
Kalinina is now 12-11 in 2023 on hard courts, with a solid 156-100 career record on the surface. She is fit and can hit with power into openings, particularly with her backhand. The Ukrainian absorbs pace effectively and can neutralize points from defensive positions before turning points around. But, Kalinina's forehand can go haywire at times and she can sometimes go in and out of matches mentally.
Sara Sorribes Tormo won Cleveland this past week, beating Ekaterina Alexandrova 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the final. Sorribes Tormo won just 56% of her service points, getting broken five times. But, the Spaniard won 49% of her return points, breaking on six occasions.
Sorribes Tormo is now 5-2 this year on hard courts, with a respectable 125-108 record on the surface as a professional. Her strengths are her physicality and brutal consistency.
Sorribes Tormo is extremely fit, very consistent and is a cerebral player. She understands point construction and shot selection. The Spaniard's foot speed, defensive skills and counterpunching are superb. She has a heavy forehand, a solid backhand and excellent variety — particularly her backhand slice.
She is in excellent form and should be confident coming into this match. While Kalinina has a bit more power, she doesn't have enough to consistently rip through Sorribes Tormo from the baseline.
Kalinina's forehand should be the worst shot on the court. The Spaniard should be able to extend points and bait Kalinina into forehand errors.
Finally, Sorribes Tormo is steadier mentally than the Ukrainian, whose focus on court often fluctuates. Sorribes Tormo should be able to take advantage of Kalinina's dips in concentration.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo ML (-145 via BetMGM)
Petra Kvitova (-425) vs Cristina Bucsa (+320)
6 p.m. ET
Petra Kvitova last played in Cincinnati (hard), where she fell 6-3, 2-6, 4-6 to Linda Noskova in her second match. Kvitova served just 55% of her first serves in, winning just 33% of her second serves and getting broken on six occasions. The Czech did win 57% of her second-serve returns, breaking four times.
Kvitova, who won a Masters 1000 in Miami this season, is 17-7 this year on hard courts. For her career, she is an impressive 403-196 on the surface. But, it is worth noting that the Czech is just 2-2 during the summer hard-court swing, with her form cooling down. Kvitova has a huge lefty serve and can dictate with her heavy, powerful forehand. However, Kvitova's rally tolerance is questionable, her movement is suspect and her variety is not as crisp as it once was.
Cristina Bucsa played very well in the Chicago Challenger, but she had a precautionary withdrawal to Claire Liu down 1-2 in the semifinals. However, in her previous 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 victory over Rebecca Peterson, Bucsa won 60% of her second-serve returns and broke six times, although she was broken five times herself.
Bucsa has a solid 14-10 record on hard courts this season and a 138-75 career record on the surface. The Spaniard doesn't have any spectacular aspect of her game, but she's very solid from both wings and can hit into targets especially well with her forehand. She's a good mover, absorbs pace effectively and has a high tennis IQ. Bucsa is a fairly strong counterpuncher.
I don't take anything away from Bucsa's retirement, as right before a major, players are very cautious.
Kvitova's form has slowed down since winning Berlin, and the errors have been creeping back into her game. The US Open is also traditionally her worst Slam, as the Czech usually doesn't succeed in humid conditions.
Bucsa has the consistent depth and ability to absorb pace and successfully counterpunch in order to extend rallies and force the Czech to lower her margins. She should also be able to test Kvitova's fitness with longer points and her ability to spread the court, keeping Kvitova on the move.
Bucsa has won five of her last six completed matches, including beating Belinda Bencic in Cincinnati. She's in good form and should keep this match competitive.
Pick: Bucsa +4.5 games (+110 via PointsBet)
