The third round of the US Open is here and Friday's order of play can't be beat!
I’ve found value on two of Friday's matchups — Wang vs Schmiedlova and Wozniacki vs Brady.
Read on for my 2023 US Open picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Odds, Picks
Xinyu Wang (-290) vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (+225)
11 a.m. ET
Xinyu Wang came back to defeat Sara Sorribes Tormo 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 in the second round. Wang won just 53% of her service points, getting broken on seven occasions. However, Wang won 49% of her return points, breaking eight times.
Although largely against lower-level competition, Wang is now an impressive 25-12 on hard courts in 2023. As a professional, Wang has a strong 154-94 record on the surface. She can hit with pace on her serve at times and plays with controlled aggression from the baseline, utilizing her powerful, well-placed forehand especially well. She also has a high tennis IQ and understands point construction, although she's a bit streaky with her consistency.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova beat Rebeka Masarova 7-6(0), 6-2 to advance in New York. Schmiedlova won 79% of her first-serve points and was only broken once. The Slovak won 61% of her second serves and broke on three occasions.
Schmiedlova has a 16-11 record on hard courts this season, with a solid 187-149 career-record on the surface. Her game is built around her heavy, well-placed forehand that she uses to dictate baseline play. The Slovak is quick, anticipates well and is fairly consistent from the ground. With that said, Schmiedlova's forehand can sit up in the court and her backhand breaks down under pressure.
Wang, who has won 11 of her last 12 matches, is in excellent form and should continue to excel. She has the the more reliable controlled aggression and should be the one in charge from the ground.
In the battle of the forehands on a quick surface, Wang's is more potent, whereas Schmiedlova's is much more attackable. And the Slovak's backhand should be the worst shot on the court and will likely be put under fire.
Wang has broken serve 10 times this tournament already and should also get into Schmiedlova's service games much more than Masarova did.
Finally, Wang's overall Elo rating is 98.8 points higher than Schmiedlova's and her hard-court Elo is 112 points above her's.
Pick: Wang -3.5 games (-135 via PointsBet)
Caroline Wozniacki (-122) vs Jennifer Brady (+102)
2 p.m. ET
Caroline Wozniacki defeated Petra Kvitova 7-5, 7-6(5) to advance to the third round. Despite winning just 40% of her second serves and getting broken three times, Wozniacki won 74% of her first serves. The Dane also won 54% of her second-serve returns, breaking on four occasions.
Wozniacki, a two-time US Open finalist, has recently come back from retirement with a 3-2 hard-court record this season. For her career, however, Wozniacki is an incredible 457-179 on the surface. The former Australian Open champion is incredibly consistent from the ground and places the ball very well. She's fast, anticipates effectively and is a very cerebral player. While the Dane's defense and ability to absorb pace are superb, her counterpunching is also outstanding.
Wozniacki just lacks power on her serve and her forehand can sometimes go haywire.
Jennifer Brady fought past Magda Linette 6-1, 2-6, 6-2 in a three-set battle. Brady won 56% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. The American did win 64% of Linette's second serves and break six times.
Brady, a former US Open semifinalist who not long ago came back from injury, is 5-4 on hard in 2023. The American has a strong 199-114 record on hard as a professional. Brady has a big first serve and heavy, powerful, well-placed forehand that she uses to control the ground.
However, Brady can become erratic from the baseline and she's not the best mover.
Wozniacki just played excellent tennis in blunting Kvitova's power, forcing the Czech to move around the court and drawing out errors. I expect a similar performance in this match.
She has the movement and defensive skills to defend against Brady's attacking style. She should be able to force the American to overhit and get the ball onto Brady's backhand. And Wozniacki has the big edge in backhand-to-backhand rallies.
Finally, the Dane's forehand can sometimes be a weakness, but she's hit with confidence from that wing this week. Her forehand has been surprisingly solid and it won't be easy for Brady to break that side down.
Pick: Wozniacki ML (-122 via FanDuel)
