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The first round of Wimbledon is beginning and the level of play should be through the roof!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups —Sorribes Tormo vs Trevisan and Kasatkina vs Dolehide.
Read on for my 2023 Wimbledon expert picks.
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Wimbledon Expert Picks
Sara Sorribes Tormo (-300) vs Martina Trevisan (+240)
8 a.m. ET
Sara Sorribes Tormo most recently made the round of 16 in Valencia before falling to Sara Errani. But, while Sorribes Tormo isn't coming into Wimbledon with a ton of grass preparations this season, she does have a solid 21-17 career-record on the surface.
Sorribes Tormo is much better known for her clay-court success, with over 350 matches played on the dirt, but the Spaniard can effectively adapt her game to the grass. Her rally tolerance on grass is higher than most, as she is able to handle the bad bounces and still hit into targets. She also absorbs pace and counterpunches effectively on the surface.
Her variety, particularly her cutting backhand slice, is potent on grass. She forces her opponents to hit plenty of shots out of their strike zones.
Martina Trevisan played recently in Bad Homburg, losing 4-6, 2-6 to Alize Cornet in her opening match. Trevisan won just 40% of her service points and got broken six times. The Italian did win 62% of her second-serve returns and broke three times, but she only won 30% of her first-serve returns.
Trevisan is just 1-9 on grass as a professional. The Italian has a heavy, lefty forehand, which typically dictates baseline play. The problem for Trevisan on grass is that her forehand doesn't cut through the court on grass and she has a long windup on the forehand, allowing opponents to rush her. Trevisan struggles much more with her rally tolerance on grass, needing the ball in her strike zone to stay consistent. Trevisan's backhand, while always a bit of a liability, is even more-so on grass.
Sorribes Tormo has much more grass experience and can better adapt her game to the quicker, lower-bouncing surface. The Spaniard's able to maintain most of her consistency on grass and deal with the varying bounces.
And Sorribes Tormo's excellent direction on her groundstrokes should ensure she's targeting Trevisan's backhand.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo 2-0 (-110 via FanDuel)
Daria Kasatkina (-880) vs Caroline Dolehide (+580)
10 a.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina made it to the Eastbourne final, but he lost 2-6, 6-7(13) to Madison Keys. Kasatkina won just 50% of her service points, getting broken four times. Despite winning just 30% of her first-serve returns, the Russian did win 65% of her second-serve returns, breaking twice.
Kasatkina is now an impressive 25-15 on grass for her career. While the Russian does lack some power, she's largely able to adapt her game to the surface. Kasatkina gets consistent depth on grass and she's so comfortable moving on the surface. This allows Kasatkina to keep points alive before eventually turning them around. In addition, at times, Kasatkina does incorporate excellent touch shots and slices that keep her opponents off-balance.
Caroline Dolehide fell 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-7(3) to Madison Brengle in Eastbourne qualifying. Despite winning 67% of her first serves, Dolehide won just 38% of her second serves and was broken on five occasions. In addition, the American won 44% of her return points, breaking six times.
Dolehide is just 11-16 on grass as a professional, but has lost her last six matches on the surface. While Dolehide has a big first serve, her second serve sits up in the box. Dolehide tries to dictate with her powerful forehand, but sometimes she can over-emphasize topspin, which is less effective on grass. In addition, Dolehide's backhand is erratic.
In addition, Dolehide is not the quickest, most agile mover, both laterally and moving forward. But, when she's able to move forward, the American is strong at the net.
Kasatkina is an excellent returner and should defuse Dolehide's powerful first serve. Then, utilizing her defensive skills, turn this into a baseline battle.
Dolehide will want to play quicker, power-based points where she's dominating with her forehand and moving into net when given the opportunity. However, Kasatkina should not only extend rallies, but has the direction on her groundstrokes to keep the ball onto Dolehide's weaker backhand wing.
And when Dolehide tries to move forward, Kasatkina's pinpoint passing shots should make her pay.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-128 via FanDuel)
