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The first round of Wimbledon is ending but there are plenty of fascinating matches still on tap!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday’s matchups —Alexandrova vs Navarro and Sakkari vs Kostyuk.
Read on for my 2023 Wimbledon expert picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing Wimbledon matches.
WTA Wimbledon Odds, Picks
Ekaterina Alexandrova (-365) vs Emma Navarro (+285)
6 a.m. ET
Ekaterina Alexandrova most recently played in Berlin, where she made the semifinals before falling 3-6, 4-6 to Petra Kvitova. Alexandrova won 67% of her service points, including 74% on her first serve, and was broken twice. However, the Russian won just 30% of her return points and didn't generate a break point.
Alexandrova is now 30-15 as a professional and 7-1 this season on grass, with a WTA Tour title in Rosmalen. Including the loss to Kvitova, Alexandrova has dropped just three sets this grass season. The Russian has a huge first serve and positions herself excellently on court, allowing Alexandrova to play aggressively from the ground. She dictates particularly effectively with her forehand.
And while Alexandrova's backhand is more hit-or-miss and she can become erratic at times, her first-strike tennis works perfectly on grass.
Emma Navarro last competed in the Bad Homburg semifinals, losing 2-6, 2-6 against Katerina Siniakova. Navarro won just 53% of her first-serve points and was broken four times. In addition, the American won just 29% of her return points, failing to break once.
Navarro is 7-2 this season on grass in her first season on the surface. She seemingly has more of a clay game, with a heavy, well-placed forehand and a higher rally tolerance. With that said, Navarro has adapted her game well to grass. She is able to shorten her groundstrokes and redirect her opponents' power. Navarro also spreads the court well with excellent touch and slices, effectively keeping the ball out of her opponents' strike zones.
She still has much less experience on the surface than Alexandrova. And, despite Navarro's successes this season, Alexandrova has still played the higher quality grass-court tennis of the two.
Alexandrova has the much bigger first serve, which should give her plenty of free points. She should punish Navarro with her aggressive forehand behind her first serve. In Navarro's seven grass wins this season, she's won just one match against a player with a big serve and big forehand (Rebeka Masarova). Masarova was up a set before retiring in that one.
The Russian has the pace to rush Navarro's forehand and target her weaker backhand, and she won't allow Navarro to dictate with her forehand, instead putting the American on the defensive.
Pick: Navarro to NOT win a set (-124 via FanDuel)
Maria Sakkari (-300) vs Marta Kostyuk (+235)
8 a.m. ET
Maria Sakkari most recently made the Berlin semifinals, losing 4-6 6-7(8) to Marta Kostyuk. Sakkari won 56% of her service points, but just 44% of her second serves, getting broken four times. But, Sakkari won 57% of her second-serve returns and broke serve three times.
Sakkari is now a solid 27-18 on grass for her career, despite the Greek generally being better on slower surfaces. Sakkari's game is centered around her physicality and heavy forehand that she uses to dictate baseline play. However, physicality and the heaviness of groundstrokes are de-emphasized on grass. Sakkari doesn't seem too bothered by the lower grass bounces and she can still hit into targets from the baseline when given the opportunity.
Nonetheless, the Greek's backhand is even more vulnerable on grass than it is on other surfaces.
Marta Kostyuk played a grass warmup event in Birmingham, falling to Anastasia Potapova 7-6(6), 5-7, 4-6. While Kostyuk won 72% of her first-serve points, she won only 43% of her second serves, getting broken on three occasions. And Kostyuk won 30% of her return points, breaking just once.
Kostyuk has a 12-12 career-record on grass, although her game suits the surface better than her record would indicate. Kostyuk has a big first serve and plays aggressively from the baseline. The Ukrainian's groundstrokes cut through the court nicely and she can take the racquet out of her opponents hands. With that said, Kostyuk's game is very streaky, given how low her margins are.
This is an interesting stylistic contrast, with Sakkari the better player with the higher rally tolerance, but the quicker surface should limit Sakkari's strengths while successfully leveraging Kostyuk's game.
Kostyuk has the firepower on her groundstrokes to rush Sakkari's forehand and pummel the Greek's backhand wing. And, on grass when facing Kostyuk's baseline game, Sakkari's physicality and defensive skills won't be enough to blunt the Ukrainian's game when she's hitting her targets.
Pick: Kostyuk +1.5 sets (-115 via PointsBet)
