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The round of 16 at Wimbledon continues and the fun continues on Monday!
I’ve found value on two of Monday’s matchups —Keys vs Andreeva and Kvitova vs Jabeur.
Read on for my Wimbledon picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing Wimbledon matches.
2023 Wimbledon Odds & Picks
Madison Keys (-250) vs Mirra Andreeva (+200)
6 a.m. ET
Madison Keys defeated Marta Kostyuk 6-4, 6-1 in the third round. Despite winning just 32% of her second serves, Keys won 80% of her first serves, only getting broken once. The American won 52% of her return points, breaking Kostyuk's serve on five occasions.
Keys, who won WTA Eastbourne recently, is now 8-0 this season on grass and an incredible 45-16 for her career. The American has a huge first serve and plays aggressive baseline tennis. Keys tries to stay in offensive court positions, dictating play – especially with her forehand.
However, Keys' rally tolerance can break down and she struggles with balls out of her strike zone. In addition, the American isn't the best mover.
Mirra Andreeva took down Anastasia Potapova 6-2, 7-5 to advance in London. Andreeva won 57% of her service points, getting broken on three occasions. Andreeva also won 50% of her return points, generating 21 break points and breaking six times.
She is playing her first career tournament on grass, but has dropped just two sets in her first six matches on the surface (all victories). Andreeva does everything relatively well. She anticipates effectively, absorbs pace and counterpunches successfully. The Russian places her groundstrokes well. Andreeva has easy power, hitting into targets when given the opportunity to do so. She also has plenty of variety, spreading the court and using her slices to keep the ball out of opponents' strike zones.
Keys is a deserved favorite here, but Andreeva should be a huge test. The Russian has the defensive skills to keep points alive, with the offensive capabilities to turn points around once she neutralizes Keys' aggressive play.
Andreeva's slices, which are a major part of her game, should also be important in this match, as this should help keep the ball out of Keys' strike zone. This should test Keys' rally tolerance and she will likely struggle to maintain her rally tolerance.
The younger competitor has the consistency from the baseline to allow Keys to beat herself if the American is not locked in.
Pick: Andreeva +1.5 sets (-135 via PointsBet)
Petra Kvitova (-140) vs Ons Jabeur (+116)
9:30 a.m. ET
Petra Kvitova survived a tricky test from Natalija Stevanovic, defeating the Serb 6-3, 7-5. Kvitova won 60% of her service points, getting broken three times. The Czech won 53% of her return points, including 62% of her second-serve returns, breaking on four occasions.
Kvitova, who won WTA Berlin recently, is now 8-0 this year on grass and is an impressive 74-22 on grass as a professional. The two-time Wimbledon champion has a massive, well-placed lefty serve. She follows up that serve with aggressive groundstrokes, as the Czech can take the racquet out of her opponents hands, and she's particularly potent with her forehand. Kvitova's court positioning is strong, she has a high tennis IQ and she knows when to move forward. But, Kvitova can become erratic from the ground at times.
Ons Jabeur beat Bianca Andreescu 3-6 ,6-3, 6-4 to advance in London. Jabeur won 81% of her first serves, and 68% of her service points overall, getting broken twice. In addition, the Tunisian won 45% of her second-serve returns, breaking on three occasions.
Jabeur, who made the Wimbledon final last season, has an incredible 64-19 career-record on grass. The Tunisian hits her spots on serve, has a powerful, well-placed forehand, and has excellent variety. Jabeur has impressive touch on her shots and a cutting backhand slice that stays out of her opponents' strike zones. But, Jabeur's variety can suffer when she's rushed from the baseline and she's been more erratic since returning from a calf ailment.
Kvitova is on fire this grass-court season and is now playing an opponent that is a good matchup for her. The Czech leads the head to head against Jabeur 4-1 for a reason.
She has the pace on her groundstrokes to rush Jabeur from the baseline. Kvitova doesn't give the Tunisian enough time on return to effectively produce her variety and forces Jabeur to play much more defense than she is comfortable with. Jabeur is also not the best defender around.
Kvitova, who is top-10 in 2023 for aces, percentage of 1st-serve points won, service points won and service games won, has the clear edge on serve in this matchup. Jabeur should find it difficult to get into Kvitova's service games.
Pick: Kvitova ML (-140 via FanDuel)
