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The Australian Open has arrived and the level of tennis is through the roof!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups —Marie Bouzkova vs Linda Noskova and Camila Osorio vs Tatjana Maria.
Read on for my 2024 Australian Open picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Australian Open Odds, Picks
Marie Bouzkova (-175) vs Linda Noskova (+140)
7 p.m. ET
Bouzkova last played in Hobart, where she lost 4-6, 6-1, 3-6 to Yulia Putintseva in her second match. Bouzkova won just 55% of her service points, getting broken five times. The Czech did win 44% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
She has an incredible 250-124 professional-record on hard courts, going 19-15 last season on hard. Bouzkova's game is centered around her fitness, foot speed and consistency. The Czech gets many balls back into play, showcasing excellent defensive and counterpunching skills. Bouzkova is also competent at the net and understands her game, and the shot selection that comes with it.
It's tough to break down Bouzkova from the ground, but her forehand is more likely to self-destruct. And the Czech does lack power.
Linda Noskova most recently competed in Brisbane, making the semifinals before falling 3-6, 2-6 to Elena Rybakina. Noskova was broken three times, winning 57% of her service points. The Czech also won just 26% of her return points against Rybakina's big serve, failing to break.
Noskova was an impressive 27-12 in 2023 on hard courts, with a 92-35 record overall on hard. The Czech has a big first serve and follows it up with aggressive groundstrokes from both wings. Noskova positions herself well on court, exhibiting an aggressive mindset, and looking to put her opponents on defense. She moves decently well and can defend effectively, although it's not a huge strength. There are times, though, where Noskova becomes overly aggressive and her consistency dips, hitting herself out of matches.
These two have played twice before, with Bouzkova winning both matches. Bouzkova doesn't mind a matchup like this at all, where she doesn't have to be the aggressor, and where Noskova doesn't quite have the power to just rip through Bouzkova's defenses.
Bouzkova is able to defend, keep points alive and successfully bait Noskova into overhitting. She also has the return game to get Noskova's big serves back into play and force this match into a baseline battle, which favors Bouzkova.
Pick: Bouzkova -2.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
Camila Osorio (-148) vs Tatjana Maria (+128)
9 p.m. ET
Camila Osorio most recently qualified for Hobart, but fell 6-1, 6-7(4), 5-7 to Anna Karolina Schmiedlova in her opening main-draw match. Osorio won only 53% of her service points, getting broken six times. The Colombian did win 45% of her return points, breaking on seven occasions.
Osorio has a strong 69-53 record on hard as a professional. Last season, though, Osorio went just 10-11 on the surface. The Colombian is physical, fit and quick around the court, defending and counterpunching well. Osorio also has a heavy forehand that she manipulates around the court effectively. However, her backhand can be a liability and her she lacks power, both on serve and from the ground.
Tatjana Maria lost 0-6, 1-6 to Viktoriya Tomova in the second round of Hobart. Maria won a shocking 29% of her service points, getting broken six times. The German also won just 34% of her return points, failing to break serve.
Maria still has a good 330-270 career-record on hard, after going 24-18 on the surface in 2023. Maria's best weapon is her backhand slice and excellent net play, which makes opponents uncomfortable. The German, when at her best, imposes her playing style on her opponents and forces them to adapt. Maria also hits her spots with her first serve and has a fairly powerful forehand, allowing her to dictate baseline play.
With that said, Maria plays a low-margin game and her backhand, when under pressure, is a liability. She's also 36-years old and lacks the physicality that she once had.
And it's this dearth of physicality that worries me. Osorio is a patient player and should be able to fend off Maria's slices and hit effective passing shots when Maria approaches the net.
Particularly with how poor Maria looked against Tomova, who also plays an endurance-based brand of tennis, it's hard to see Maria imposing her will, getting the quick points she craves. I expect her to gas out before the match is finished.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Osorio's overall Elo is 87.9 points above Maria's and her hard-court Elo is 79.1 points above the German's.
Pick: Osorio -2.5 games (-106 via FanDuel)
