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The Australian Open continues on and the action keeps getting better and better!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups — Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Elena Rybakina vs Anna Blinkova.
Read on for my 2024 Australian Open picks and predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Australian Open Odds, Picks
Emma Navarro (-330) vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto (+260)
10:30 p.m. ET
Emma Navarro survived a tough battle against Xiyu Wang, defeating the Chinese 6-1, 6-7(5), 7-5. Navarro won 62% of her service points, getting broken on three occasions. The American also won an impressive 46% her return points against Wang's big, lefty serve, breaking six times.
Navarro, who won WTA Hobart (hard) last week, is a solid 55-40 on hard for her career. She was 20-10 on the surface last season. The American isn't the most athletic player, but she hits her spots on serve and has a big, heavy forehand. Navarro gets consistent depth from the ground and her defense is improving. She places the ball well, including from her backhand wing, and builds points effectively, exhibiting excellent shot selection. She also has good touch.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto beat Lulu Sun 6-1, 7-5 in the first round. Cocciaretto won 72% of her service points and wasn't broken, with Sun returning poorly. In addition, the Italian won 44% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Cocciaretto is 48-36 on hard courts as a professional, but went just 12-13 on the surface in 2023. The Italian's game is best-suited for clay courts, as she lacks power, but Cocciaretto does have a heavy forehand that she places well. Cocciaretto's moves well, effectively anticipating where her opponents are going and using her quick foot speed. She also has strong variety.
Cocciaretto is vulnerable to being overpowered from the baseline, though, and her backhand is prone to breaking down. In addition, Italian's serve is weak.
Navarro's overall Elo is 134.1 points higher than Cocciaretto's and her hard-court Elo is 191.4 points above the Italian's.
This demonstrates the difference in hard-court prowess between the players. Navarro's game is better-suited to hard, as she has more power in all aspects of her game and her forehand doesn't sit up in the court nearly as much as the Italian's does.
Navarro should dictate with her forehand and force Cocciaretto on defense, where she is less comfortable than on clay. The American is more comfortable building points on hard and has the tennis IQ to get the ball onto Cocciaretto's weaker backhand.
And Cocciaretto get to face an erratic, poor-returning opponent, like Sun, in this one.
Pick: Cocciaretto to NOT win a set (-112 via FanDuel)
Elena Rybakina (-2000) vs Anna Blinkova (+1260)
3 a.m. ET
Elena Rybakina defeated Karolina Pliskova 7-6(6), 6-4 to open her Melbourne campaign. Rybakina won 73% of her service points, only getting broken once. The Kazakh also won 38% of her return points, breaking twice.
Rybakina, who was a finalist at the Australian Open last season, was 31-10 overall on hard in 2023. The Kazakh has a 193-88 career-record on the surface. Rybakina has a huge first serve, finishing top-six last season in aces, percentage of first-serve points won, service points won and service games won. Rybakina follows up her huge serves with huge groundstrokes, particularly her forehand.
Rybakina's movement isn't great, though, and her margins are small, leading to periods of unforced errors, especially with her backhand.
Anna Blinkova took down Cristina Bucsa 6-2, 6-4 to advance to the second round. Blinkova won 65% of her service points and wasn't broken. In addition, the Russian won 40% of her return points, breaking on three occasions.
Blinkova has a strong 183-125 record on hard as a professional, although she went just 18-18 last season. The Russian has an aggressive mindset and showcases easy power from the ground. She has a fairly strong serve and is quick, defending effectively when necessary. There are times, though, where Blinkova lacks patience and can become overly aggressive, leading to poor unforced errors.
Rybakina is in excellent form, having gone 7-1 to start the year, but she hasn't looked great in her three matches since her Brisbane title. The Kazakh's rally tolerance has been shakier and she's not returning as well as she was in Brisbane either.
Rybakina doesn't play with high margins to begin with and she's played a lot of tennis in a short period of time this season. She won't test Blinkova's rally tolerance in a way where the Russian would likely lose her patience, instead playing shorter quick-strike points.
And Blinkova was strong from the baseline against Bucsa, hitting with the controlled aggression necessary to keep this match within the spread.
Pick: Over 17.5 games (-118 via FanDuel)
