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The Australian Open has been incredible so far and the fun continues on Sunday!
I’ve found value on two of Sunday's matchups —Storm Hunter vs Sara Errani and Paula Badosa vs Taylor Townsend.
Read on for my 2024 Australian Open picks, odds and expert predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Australian Open Odds, Picks
Storm Hunter (-240) vs Sara Errani (+190)
6 p.m. ET
Hunter qualified for the Australian Open by defeating Dominika Salkova 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. Hunter won 58% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. The Aussie did win 44% of her return points, breaking five times.
She is a solid 145-122 as a professional on hard courts, having gone 13-10 last season. The Aussie has a fairly big lefty serve and an attacking mindset, trying to dictate with her lefty forehand. And Hunter, who has plenty of doubles success, is an effective volleyer, as well. There are times, however, when Hunter's rally tolerance can dip.
Errani most recently played in the Canberra Challenger, where she lost her first match 2-6, 3-6. Errani won just 44% of her service points, getting broken five times. She did win 43% of her return points, breaking twice.
The Italian has a serviceable 262-225 record on hard for her career, including a 14-11 mark in 2023. Errani, at her best, places the ball excellently, hitting with superb control over her groundstrokes and utilizing her excellent variety. Whether it be slices, drop shots or sharp angles, the Italian understands shot selection and has a high tennis IQ. She also is often all over her opponents' service games, returning at a high level.
However, recently, the 36 year old Italian has looked noticeably slower on court, with her rally tolerance and defense declining. Her serve is also a massive liability.
Hunter is in much better form than Errani. While Errani will get into some of her service games, Hunter's lefty serve is good enough to mitigate the damage. And, given the Aussie's returning in qualifying, breaking 16 times in three matches, she should be in plenty of Errani's service games.
Hunter has the offensive weapons to test Errani's legs and, given the Italian's declining physicality, she should ultimately hit through her.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Hunter's overall Elo is 114.1 points above Errani's and her hard-court Elo is 110.4 points above the Italian's.
Pick: Hunter -3.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)
Paula Badosa (-215) vs Taylor Townsend (+180)
11:15 p.m. ET
Paula Badosa last played in Adelaide, where she was defeated 6-3, 2-6, 3-6 by Bernarda Pera in her first match. Badosa won just 55% of her service points, getting broken on five occasions. The Spaniard did win 54% of her second-serve returns, breaking three times.
Badosa has an impressive 180-89 professional-record on hard, which includes a solid 5-4 mark last season. Adelaide was Badosa's first tournament since Wimbledon, as the Spaniard has struggled with a back ailment. When healthy, Badosa has solid groundstrokes and is a good mover, anticipating well. She hits her spots on serve and can hit with power from both wings.
With that said, Badosa struggled to find her range against Pera, looking out of rhythm and struggling with her depth.
Taylor Townsend got into the Adelaide draw as a lucky loser before falling 3-6, 6-2, 4-6 to Marta Kostyuk in her second main-draw match. Townsend won only 53% of her service points in that match, getting broken six times. But, the American won 46% of her return points, generating 20 break points and breaking on six occasions.
Townsend is a strong 155-105 on hard courts for her career, going 18-10 in 2023 on the surface. She plays an unconventional style, with a heavy, lefty serve and her attacking net game. The American's touch at the net is outstanding. Townsend's variety is superb and she spreads the court well. She does a great job of taking her opponents out of their comfort zones.
However, Townsend does have periods where hits too many errors, as she doesn't play with a lot of margin.
Townsend has the game to make an undercooked Badosa very uncomfortable. Badosa thrives in trying to outmaneuver her opposition from the baseline and is more comfortable in extended rallies.
But, Townsend won't allow this to happen. Townsend should attack the net, keeping rallies short. She should also utilize her variety to keep the ball out of Badosa's strike zone.
For a player lacking match prep and rhythm like Badosa, the American is a nightmare opponent.
Badosa did look uncomfortable playing the lefty Pera in her previous match, struggling to handle her heavy, lefty forehand. Townsend can cause this same stress onto the Spaniard.
Pick: Townsend +3.5 games (-114 via FanDuel)
