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The Australian Open continues on and the action keeps getting better and better!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups —Daria Kasatkina vs Peyton Stearns and Cristina Bucsa vs Anna Blinkova.
Read on for my 2024 Australian Open picks and predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Australian Open Odds, Picks
Daria Kasatkina (-260) vs Peyton Stearns (+215)
7 p.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina is currently in the semifinals of Adelaide after a walkover victory over Laura Siegemund. However, in her previous match, Kasatkina defeated Anna Kalinskaya 5-7, 6-4, 7-5. Kasatkina won just 50% of her service points in the match, but she did win 50% of her return points, breaking on nine occasions.
Kasatkina is now 4-1 to start the season (all on hard). For her career, Kasatkina is an impressive 199-128 on hard courts. The Russian has a heavy, well-placed forehand that puts her opponents in uncomfortable positions. In addition, Kasatkina places her backhand well, although she is less steady from this wing. She moves incredibly well, defending and counterpunching beautifully. Her variety is also strong, particularly her touch shots.
Kasatkina's lack of power, especially on her serve, can lead to problems against high-quality opposition, though.
Peyton Stearns most recently lost in her opening match of Hobart, falling 6-7(3), 6-3, 5-7 to Varvara Gracheva. Stearns won 49% of her service points, getting broken on eight occasions. The American did win 49% of her return points, breaking eight times.
Stearns has started the year 0-2 (both on hard), although she did go 25-14 on hard last season and 95-59 for her career. She has a decent, well-placed first serve and a strong forehand that allows her to dictate play. While the American can be aggressive with her backhand, she leaks errors from that wing. Stearns is not the most dynamic athlete, with mediocre movement. In addition, her variety and defensive skills are lacking.
These two played twice last season, with Kasatkina losing a combined four games in those two matches (including once on hard court). Kasatkina was broken just once, winning over 55% of her return points and breaking 12 times.
Kasatkina has the defensive and counterpunching skills to fend off Stearns' big serves and forehands, with the placement on her groundstrokes to get the ball onto Stearns' weaker wing.
Her rally tolerance is stronger and she has the better variety. In cat-and-mouse points, Kasatkina has the big edge.
Pick: Kasatkina 2-0 (+100 via FanDuel)
Cristina Bucsa (-134) vs Anna Blinkova (+114)
10:30 p.m. ET
Cristina Bucsa most recently qualified for Adelaide and made the second round, but she lost 3-6, 5-7 to Elena Rybakina. Bucsa won 58% of her service points, getting broken three times. The Spaniard also won 61% of her second-serve returns, although she broke Rybakina's big serve just once.
Bucsa has an impressive 152-86 career-record on hard courts, going 25-18 in 2023 on the surface. Bucsa maintains excellent rally tolerance from both wings and has a high tennis IQ, understanding shot selection. While the Spaniard isn't a power player, she added a bit more power to her game, allowing her to dictate and forcing her opponents on defense at times. However, Bucsa doesn't compromise too much control in adding this extra layer of power.
Even so, there's nothing about Bucsa's game that stands out as outstanding.
Anna Blinkova lost her latest match in Hobart, falling 6-3, 4-6, 4-6 to Daria Saville in the first round. Blinkova won just 50% of her service points, getting broken on seven occasions. The Russian did win 43% of her return points, helping her to break six times.
Blinkova is a solid 182-125 as a professional on hard, with an 18-18 record last year. She attempts to take command of the baseline with aggressive groundstrokes and gets good contact from both wings. Blinkova is quick around the court and hits her spots on serve, as well. However, Blinkova can sometimes become overly aggressive and go for low-percentage groundstrokes in a vain attempt to end points earlier than they should. It's this lack of patience that can get the Russian in trouble.
Late last season, Bucsa defeated Blinkova 6-3, 6-2 on an indoor hard court in Limoges and, for many of the same reasons she won that match, she will win this one.
Bucsa is the more consistent player from the ground and has more margin to her game, even when attacking. While Blinkova might have slightly "bigger" groundstrokes, she's less reliable when hitting them.
The Spaniard is the better defender and absorbs power at a higher level. She should frustrate Blinkova with her defensive skills and utilize her more complete game to advance in Melbourne.
Pick: Bucsa ML (-134 via FanDuel)
