The Australian Open is here and Saturday in Melbourne looks amazing!
I’ve found value on two of Saturday's matchups —Wang vs Parry and Samsonova vs Anisimova.
Read on for my 2024 Australian Open predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
2024 Australian Open Odds, Predictions
Xinyu Wang (-270) vs Diane Parry (+210)
10:30 p.m. ET
Xinyu Wang most recently competed in Hobart, where she lost 5-7, 3-6 to Yue Yuan in her second match. Wang won 67% of her service points and was broken twice. The Chinese won just 21% of her return points and failing to generate break point.
Wang had an impressive 32-17 record on hard last year and a 163-101 record on hard as a professional. The Chinese has a powerful first serve and dictates baseline play with her huge, heavy forehand, positioning herself well on court as the aggressor, At times she can overplay from the ground. Ultimately, so far this season (in which the Chinese is 2-2), it's been too hit-or-miss from Wang.
Diane Parry started off her season in Auckland, falling 7-6(3), 3-6, 4-6 to the lefty Xiyu Wang in the quarterfinals. Parry won 68% of her first serves, but just 38% of her second serves, getting broken six times. The Frenchwoman won 63% of her second-serve returns and generated 18 break points, breaking on four occasions.
Parry has a career-record of 31-49 on the surface, so winning two matches this week and getting a set off of Wang is a positive sign. The Frenchwoman has a high tennis IQ, spreading the court and utilizing excellent variety to keep her opponents off-balance. Parry isn't afraid of the net and has a strong backhand slice that stays out of her opponents' strike zones. She's also solid from the baseline, letting opponents self-destruct.
However, Parry is a bit underpowered and is still not totally comfortable on hard courts.
Wang has struggled early this season, showing inconsistency from the ground. She's hit spectacular winners, especially with her forehand, but also thrown in too many bad errors, with her backhand representing a liability. Wang's variety has also been missing so far in 2024.
Parry has the game, especially given her Auckland form, to take advantage of these issues. Her variety and ability to spread the court should keep Wang from establishing a rhythm from the baseline.
This should frustrate the Chinese and bait her into errors.
Pick: Parry +1.5 sets (-125 via PointsBet)
Liudmilla Samsonova (-240) vs Amanda Anisimova (+190)
10:30 p.m. ET
Liudmilla Samsonova last played in Adelaide where she lost 7-6(1), 4-6, 4-6 to Laura Siegemund. Samsonova won just 56% of her service points and was broken, shockingly, seven times. The Russian did win 43% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
Samsonova has started 2024 0-2 on hard, although she is an impressive 135-77 on hard as a professional. Despite her serving performance in Adelaide, Samsonova has one of the biggest first serves on the WTA Tour. She follows her serve up with huge groundstrokes, although she's more reliable with her forehand. In addition, Samsonova's court positioning is outstanding.
However, due to Samsonova's low-margin game, she can go through streaks of unforced errors.
Amanda Anisimova most recently fell 0-6, 1-6 to Marie Bouzkova in Auckland's second round. Anisimova won just 39% of her second serves, getting broken five times. The American also won just 22% of her second serves, failing to break serve.
Anisimova, who took a long mental-health hiatus last year, was just 3-7 on hard courts last year. For her career, Anisimova does have a strong 84-57 record on the surface. When she's at her best, Anisimova has easy power from the ground from both wings, anticipating well and showcasing a high tennis IQ.
However, Anisimova has been far from her best, and she injured herself during her break from tennis. She is inconsistent from the ground, with mediocre movement and a deteriorating serve.
While Samsonova is not in the best form, her sheer pace and ability to dictate play should be too much for an undercooked Anisimova to handle. She should control the baseline, move Anisimova around and not afford the American any sort of rhythm.
Anisimova would need to be the more solid player to win this, but she's barely played recently and when she has she has been inconsistent and sluggish.
In addition, Samsonova's first serve should be too much for Anisimova to handle and Anisimova's weak serve should allow the Russian to tee off on return.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Samsonova's overall Elo is 152.8 points above Anisimova's and her hard-court Elo is 176.2 points above the American's.
Pick: Samsonova -3.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
