The French Open's round of 16 continues more incredible matchups on tap!
I’ve found value on two of Sunday's matchups — Paolini vs Avanesyan and Rybakina vs Svitolina.
Read on to find 2024 French Open picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
2024 French Open Picks
Jasmine Paolini (-330) vs Elina Avanesyan (+260)
5 a.m. ET
Jasmine Paolini defeated Bianca Andreescu 6-1, 3-6, 6-0 to advance to the round of 16. Paolini won 66% of her service games and was only broken twice. In addition, the Italian won 53% of her return points, breaking on six occasions.
Paolini is now 7-3 on clay this season, with a strong 2-8-122 career-record on the dirt. The Italian has always been quick with good anticipation. In addition, her defense and counterpunching have been long-time strengths. However, this season she has incorporated more offense to her game, finding her stride on serve and stepping up in the court more in the court. This is particularly the case with her forehand, although she's hitting with controlled aggression from both wings.
While Paolini can still struggle to defend out of the wings and doesn't have overwhelming power, she's become a more complete player.
Elina Avanesyan beat Qinwen Zheng 3-6, 6-5, 7-6(6) in the third round. Avanesyan won 59% of her service points, getting broken on five occasions. The Russian won 40% of her return points, breaking five times, as well.
Avanesyan has a 5-4 record this year on clay and has an impressive 124-61 mark on the surface as a professional. The Russian spreads the court well, showcasing strong variety. Avanesyan places the ball well, getting excellent depth on her groundstrokes, and understands point construction on this surface. The problem for Avanesyan is that she lacks finishing power in rallies and struggles to win free points on her serve.
Paolini is the stronger overall and clay-court player. The Italian's overall Elo rating is 203.6 points higher than Avanesyan's and her clay Elo is 118.6 points above the Russian's.
Paolini can match Avanesyan's consistency from the ground along with the speed and anticipation to effectively neutralize the Russian's variety.
However, this season Paolini has demonstrated that she also has the offensive abilities to hit through Avanesyan from the baseline as well. This is a component to Paolini's game that Avanesyan doesn't have.
Paolini should be the one dictating with controlled aggression from the baseline, spreading the court until she has an opening to attack.
Pick: Avanesyan to NOT win a set (-122 via FanDuel)
Elena Rybakina (-310) vs Elina Svitolina (+245)
5 a.m. ET
Elena Rybakina took down Elise Mertens 6-4, 6-2 to continue her Roland Garros campaign. Rybakina won 65% of her service points, getting broken twice. The Kazakh also won 51% of her return points, breaking five times.
Rybakina has an impressive 11-1 record on the dirt in 2024, with an 87-36 professional-mark on the surface. The Kazakh has a massive serve, currently leading the WTA in 2024 in aces and being in the top-ten for nearly every important service category. Rybakina has powerful groundstrokes, controlling the baseline, especially with her forehand. However, there are times when Rybakina can become erratic, she's not the best mover and her backhand can break down.
Elina Svitolina beat Ana Bogdan 7-5, 6-2 to set up this Rybakina showdown. Svitolina won 56% of her service points, getting broken four times. The Ukrainian won a ridiculous 62% of her return points, breaking seven times in ten return games.
Svitolina is now 8-5 this year on clay, going 135-72 for her career on the dirt. Svitolina hits her spots on serve and since returning from maternity leave she has incorporated more aggression into her game. The Ukrainian's backhand is a strength, but she can still hit with controlled aggression from her forehand as well, although it's more likely to break down. She moves well, anticipating effectively, along with defending and counterpunching at a high level. It's tough to hit through Svitolina from the ground and she's returning well this tournament.
Rybakina hits one of the biggest balls on the WTA Tour, but the clay does slow things down. In addition, Svitolina's return game and her defensive skills should allow her to blunt Rybakina's power as best as she can to extend rallies.
The Kazakh's rally tolerance can become a weakness at times and Svitolina should be able to test this aspect of her game. In addition, the Ukrainian is the much better mover of the two and hits with good precision, so she should also exploit Rybakina's mediocre movement.
Finally, Svitolina is also more comfortable in cat-and-mouse points, which is a key component of clay-court tennis.
Pick: Svitolina to win a set (-120 via FanDuel)
