The French Open is off to an incredible start and the fun continues on Monday!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups: Alexandrova vs Tomova and Pera vs Hibino.
Read on to find Roland Garros picks for Monday, May 27.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.'
French Open Open Odds, Picks
Ekaterina Alexandrova (-260) vs Viktoriya Tomova (+210)
7 a.m. ET
Ekaterina Alexandrova last competed in Strasbourg (clay), losing 7-6(5), 3-6, 3-6 to Magda Linette in the second round. Alexandrova won only 54% of her service points, getting broken six times. The Russian did win 43% of her return points, but broke in just 3-of-15 service games.
Alexandrova is just 1-5 this season on clay, but does have a solid 166-102 career record on the dirt. While Alexandrova has struggled to find a rhythm this season, when she's at her best, she can play excellent offensive tennis. She typically hits big serves and huge, attacking groundstrokes, particularly with her forehand. She tries to position herself in offensive areas of the court and put as much pressure on her opponents as possible.
With that said, as we've seen recently, Alexandrova's rally tolerance comes and goes, with her backhand in particular leaking errors. She's not the best mover, either.
Viktoriya Tomova made the semifinals of Rabat (clay) last week, but lost 7-6(6), 5-7, 6-7(4) to Peyton Stearns. Tomova won just 52% of her service points, getting broken eight times. On return, the Bulgarian won 43% of her return points, breaking on seven occasions.
Tomova is a mediocre 6-6 on clay in 2024, but does have a strong 277-176 professional mark on the dirt. Tomova's game is built around her rally tolerance, consistent depth and placement around the court. The 29-year-old has a heavy forehand that she hits into small windows. She employs great variety, is quick and counterpunches successfully. Tomova does lack some power, though, and her backhand is prone to breaking down.
Alexandrova's recent level has been poor, whereas Tomova picked up confidence and form in Rabat.
The Russian has been erratic recently, which, given Tomova's defensive and counterpunching skills, is a bad sign. Tomova should be able to get plenty of balls in play, extend rallies and bait the Russian into overhitting.
And Tomova's variety should keep Alexandrova from getting her feet set to utilize her powerful game and prevent her from gaining a baseline rhythm most effectively.
Pick: Tomova to win a set (-136 via FanDuel)
Bernarda Pera (-450) vs Nao Hibino (+320)
11 a.m. ET
Bernarda Pera last played in Rome (clay), making the second round through qualifying, but losing 0-6, 2-6 to world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. Pera won just 43% of her service points, getting broken six times. The American also won just 35% of her return points, breaking once.
Pera has a strong 8-3 record on clay this season, with an incredible 254-106 mark on the surface for her career. Pera's big lefty serve and heavy forehands allow her to dominate from the baseline. Pera positions herself well on court, taking time away from her opponents and dragging them around the court. She can flatten out her backhand as well and play offense from this wing, but less effectively than on her forehand. In general, Pera does play with lower margins, but she can hit through the clay in ways others can't.
Nao Hibino fell 5-7, 6-4, 3-6 to Martina Trevisan in her opening Rabat match. Hibino won 50% of her service points and was broken on nine occasions. The 29 year-old did win 47% of her return points, breaking seven times.
Hibino is now 0-5 on clay in 2024, with a disappointing 43-53 professional-mark on the surface. Hibino is solid from the baseline, can ramp up the pace on her forehand at times and anticipates well. Her game just struggles to translate to clay. She doesn't look comfortable moving on clay and struggles to hit through the surface. She doesn't play with a ton of topspin and lacks free points on her serve to make up for her baseline deficiencies.
Pera has the huge edge on clay in this matchup and should dominate here.
Her forehand should be the best shot on the court, dictating play and taking advantage of Hibino's poor movement on clay. Hibino's poor defense and counterpunching on the dirt should allow Pera to rip through her during baseline exchanges.
Pera has the clear edge on serve and should be able to get into plenty of Hibino's return games. Pera should be in charge of rallies from the jump.
Finally, Pera's overall Elo is 144.2 points higher than Hibino's and her clay Elo is 368.7 points above Hibino's.
Pick: Under 20.5 games (-140 via BetMGM)
