The US Open is set to begin and we have incredible matches on tap already!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups: Yuan vs Andreeva and Tomljanovic vs Li.
Read on to find US Open picks for Monday, August 26.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.'
2024 US Open Picks
Yue Yuan (-130) vs Erika Andreeva (+108)
12:30 p.m. ET
Yue Yuan most recently made the quarterfinals of Monterrey (hard) before falling 5-7, 6-7(3) to Ekaterina Alexandrova. Yuan is just 3-3 during the summer hard-court swing, but she does have a 20-10 on hard courts in 2024. As a professional the Chinese is a strong 210-137 career-mark on hard courts.
Yuan has a powerful first serve and follows it up with punishing groundstrokes. The 25-year old controls the baseline with her power, especially from her forehand wing. While Yuan is not the greatest mover, because of her raw firepower, she's often the one forcing the other player on the move, as opposed to being on defense herself.
The Chinese has done a great job this season of improving her rally tolerance, which has allowed her to be just two spots away from her career-high ranking of World No. 36.
Erika Andreeva also made the quarterfinals of Monterrey, but she bowed out 4-6, 3-6 to Lulu Sun. Andreeva has a 5-3 mark on hard courts this summer, having gone an impressive 21-12 on the surface this year. For her career, Andreeva is 87-46 on hard courts.
Andreeva doesn't do anything special, but she is a well-rounded player. The Russian is very solid from the baseline, getting good depth on her groundstrokes. She moves well and anticipates where her opponents are going, defending and counterpunching at a high level.
However, while the 20-year old can hit into open targets, particularly with her forehand, she does lack some raw firepower from the baseline. More powerful opposition are able to push her around.
This should be a comfortable matchup for Yuan. Just as Sun was able to do in Monterrey, Yuan has the firepower on her serve and from the ground to drag Andreeva around the court until she can finish the point off.
Yuan should be the one in charge of the baseline, utilizing the added control she's gained this year to avoid overhitting and playing into Andreeva's hands.
Andreeva doesn't have the firepower to push Yuan back and take advantage of her less-impressive movement or athleticism.
Finally, Yuan's overall Elo rating is 53.7 points above Andreeva's and her hard-court Elo is 98.2 points above the Russian's.
Pick: Yuan ML (-130 via FanDuel)
Ajla Tomljanovic (-134) vs Ann Li (+112)
3 p.m. ET
Ajla Tomljanovic is coming into the US Open in miserable form. Tomljanovic last competed in Monterrey, where she lost 2-6, 6-7(3) to Camila Osorio in her first match. The Aussi went 0-2 during the summer hard-court swing and has lost six of her last seven matches overall.
On hard courts, despite a 230-182 professional-mark on the surface, the 31-year old veteran is just 1-4 after going just 2-4 in 2023. Tomljanovic has a fairly powerful serve and big groundstrokes, especially her forehand. However, Tomljanovic has lost some of her rally tolerance from the baseline, lacking the control over her groundstrokes that she once had.
And she's lost some of her physicality, best exemplified by how the Aussie is 8-3 on grass, yet 3-8 on clay and hard courts combined in 2024.
Ann Li qualified for the US Open, winning her last six sets of the qualifying tournament. This improved Li's record on hard courts this year to 7-9, although she's certainly on an upward trajectory. And the 24-year old has a strong 140-93 record on hard as a professional.
Li is quick around the court, defending well and getting great pop on her groundstrokes. Li's forehand is most dangerous, although she can turn points in her favor very quickly from either wing. In addition, the American is very athletic and gets good depth on her groundstrokes. And her serve is fairly powerful and well-placed.
But Li can become erratic and engage in poor shot selection.
These are two players trending in opposite directions. Tomljanovic has looked sluggish and inconsistent recent matches. She's not getting as much from her forehand as she used to and her backhand is breaking down more easily.
Meanwhile, Li is flowing with confidence, flying around the court and hitting with confidence. The 24-year old has the clear fitness edge here and should wear the Aussie down.
And, Tomljanovic, with her decreased rally tolerance and inconsistent backhand, should break down when faced with Li's athletic defending
Pick: Li ML (+112 via FanDuel)
