The 2024 US Open has arrived and players are heading to New York City with one goal in mind: Win the title.
2023 champion Coco Gauff had a (relatively) miserable second half of her summer, so it's hard to trust the American right now.
But, how should you attack outright selections for this year's US Open? Who are the players to avoid betting on?
Read on for my US Open predictions as I analyze the US Open odds and deliver my picks, featuring Aryna Sabalenka.
Note: All odds came from BetMGM. The full women’s draw can be found here.
2024 US Open Predictions
Outright: Aryna Sabalenka (+275)
It's hard to see a winner on the women's side right now other than Aryna Sabalenka.
Sabalenka just won the Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati, beating World No. 1 Iga Swiatek in straight sets in the semifinals before taking down Jessica Pegula who had won WTA Toronto, in the final. In fact, the World No. 2 didn't drop a single set all week in Cincinnati.
And the Belarusian also won the other hard-court Major this season at the Australian Open, along with being a finalist last season at the US Open.
Overall, Sabalenka has an impressive 285-119 record on hard courts for her career. This year alone, the 26-year old is an astonishing 23-6 on the surface.
In addition, when looking at hard-court Elo ratings, Sabalenka has the second-highest hard-court Elo (second only to Swiatek, who she just beat in Cincinnati).
So, what makes Sabalenka so dangerous on hard courts? For starters, she has a massive first serve. In 2024, the World No. 2 has the third-highest number of aces, the fourth-highest percentage of service points won, and the sixth-highest (tied) percentage of service games won.
And, behind that big serve, the Belarusian punishes her opponents with massive groundstrokes. She's particularly potent with her forehand, but can also play with offense from her backhand wing, as well.
Sabalenka punishes short balls and pushes opponents off of the baseline in a way that no other WTA player can do as consistently.
And, looking over Sabalenka's draw, there's no major roadblocks for the Belarusian to worry about. She does potentially have to play former finalist No. 14 seed Madison Keys in the round of 16, but Keys injured herself at Wimbledon and looked poor, eventually retiring in her only match since, against Stearns in Toronto.
Sabalenka drew the out-of-form No. 3 seed Coco Gauff as the top-seed in her half of the draw as well.
The only outright I can give in good faith at this time is Sabalenka.
Leave: Coco Gauff (+800)
It might be tempting to say, "Gauff won the US Open last year, why not this year too?" Yet, there's nothing about Gauff's current form that indicates that she can repeat last year's success at Flushing Meadows.
Since reaching the round of 16 at Wimbledon, Gauff is just 3-4, with a 1-2 record on hard courts during this time. This is in stark contrast to last season, when Gauff won Cincinnati, beating Karolina Muchova in the final and recording her only victory to date over Iga Swiatek in the semifinals.
Last season, Gauff had somewhat stabilized her major weakness in her forehand, but that is far from the case at this point in 2024. Gauff has struggled with her rally tolerance from this wing and is producing far too many short balls.
But, perhaps the biggest difference between Gauff at this point this season versus last year is the potency of her backhand. When at her best, Gauff hits with incredible controlled aggression from her backhand wing, dictating play and forcing her opponents on the defensive.
However, lately Gauff has lost some of that control over her backhand, spraying an uncharacteristic number of unforced errors and not hitting her targets nearly as often compared to the standard she's set for herself last season.
And the second serve is also a concern for the 20-year old. This year, while Gauff ranks at a tie for seventh in the percentage of first serves won (71.4%), on her second serve she's tied for 113th in the percentage of second serves won. She's winning, on average, just 44.3% of her second serves in 2024.
It's difficult to trust Gauff at this point especially with the pressure of defending ranking points weighing on her shoulders.
Leave: Jessica Pegula (+1200)
It might also be tempting to say, "Pegula has won nine of her last 10 matches, all on hard courts, she's a sneaky pick to win the title." However, having fallen into a similar trap last season, I'm not going down that route again.
There's a reason why the 30-year old has never made a Slam semifinal, despite being ranked as high as World No. 3: her game doesn't translate to the latter stages of a pressure-filled Major.
Pegula anticipates well, hits her spots on serve and can hit with some pace into the openings presented to her from the ground. And she's super solid, getting great depth on her groundstrokes.
But, there's nothing spectacular that stands out about the American's game. There's no one shot that she can rely on in the pressure moments that Slams bring.
And in the anxiety-inducing times of a tight match at a Slam, Pegula often resorts to nervous, "comfortable" tennis that more dynamic players can take advantage of. And it comes back to bite her.
For instance, when Pegula was up 4-1* in the third in the 2023 Wimbledon quarterfinals against Marketa Vondrousova, she clammed up, allowing the Czech to drag her around the court with her lefty forehand and variety. Pegula, likely due to nerves, lost the precision over her groundstrokes that she once had, as well.
Last season, in the 2023 US Open round of 16, Pegula was eviscerated by Madison Keys in a one-sided beatdown. In that match, Pegula couldn't get enough from her serve and just fed safe groundstrokes to the middle of the court for Keys to tee off on, losing that depth I talked about earlier.
There just isn't that one "signature" shot that Pegula could rely on to get herself out of the "quicksand" in that match.
Pegula had come into that match last season having won Canada, just like this season. Why is this US Open different than last year or any of the other occasions that the American has been in a Slam main draw?
