The first round of Wimbledon is here and the order of play for Monday is insane!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups — Yastremska – Podoroska and Wang – Schmiedlova.
Read on for my 2024 Wimbledon predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
2024 Wimbledon Predictions
Dayana Yastremska (-275) vs Nadia Podoroska (+220)
6 a.m. ET
Dayana Yastremska has gone just 1-2 on grass this season, having made the round of 16 most recently in Bad Homburg, but losing to eventual champion Diana Shnaider.
With that said, Yastremska does have a solid 21-19 career-record on grass for a reason. The 24-year old has a huge game, whether it be her massive first serve or huge groundstrokes. Yastremska can take the racquet out of her opponent's hands with one swing of the rally, shifting neutral-ball rallies in her favor.
And Yastremska's forehand is her biggest strength, although the level of control over her groundstrokes can vary on a given day. However, the Ukrainian has a positive 18-13 record this season for a reason. She's been able to control her groundstrokes more this year than in years' past.
Nadia Podoroska was smoked by Ekaterina Alexandrova in a 3-6, 0-6 beatdown in Bad Homburg. This was Podoroska's only match on grass so far this season, with the Argentine struggling on grass as a professional. In fact, the 27-year old is just 6-9 on grass for her career.
Podoroska is an excellent clay-courter, with a 66% winning percentage on clay as a professional, but her game doesn't translate nearly as well to the grass. Her heavy forehand sits up on grass, as opposed to cutting through the courts. Her backhand is too erratic to be a reliable weapon. And while Podoroska understands how to move on clay, this key component to her game is somewhat-neutralized on grass courts.
And I worry for Podoroska given that her forehand should sit up in the court, not troubling Yastremska, and allowing the Ukrainian to tee off. Yastremska's powerful groundstrokes into Podoroska's backhand should also give the Argentine fits.
Podoroska should be forced into defensive positions and given her diminished defensive abilities on grass, this should be a bigger problem than usual for the Argentine.
She doesn't have the weapons to extract Yastremska from the baseline and get her out of her comfort zone.
Pick: Podoroska to NOT win a set (+104 via FanDuel)
Yafan Wang (-140) vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (+116)
10 a.m. ET
Yafan Wang might be 0-3 on grass in 2024, but that doesn't necessarily indicate the Chinese's potential on the surface. Indeed, Wang has a 31-25 professional-record on the surface and is historically better on grass than this year's results indicate.
Wang is very solid from the baseline, understands how to move on the grass and can counterpunch fairly effectively on the surface. The 30-year old gets good depth on her groundstrokes and can place the ball well, with her flatter groundstrokes cutting through the court into precise targets.
This lack of heavy topspin, while limiting her effectiveness on clay, is an asset on grass. However, it is worth noting that Wang's lack of firepower limits her ceiling at an event like Wimbledon.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova has been avoiding grass like the plague, with no matches on the surface this season. And when Schmiedlova has competed on the grass, it hasn't been pretty. The Slovak is just 7-18 on grass for her career.
Why is Schmiedlova's game not effective on grass? Like with Podoroska, Schmiedlova's heavy forehand, an asset on clay, can sit up on grass courts, as opposed to cutting through the court. The 29-year old's backhand can break down under pressure and she has looked uncomfortable both moving on grass and with the weird bounces that grass-court tennis provides.
So, Wang's flatter groundstrokes cut through the court more effectively than Schmiedlova's and she is more comfortable both moving and hitting groundstrokes on the surface.
And while Wang hasn't won a match on grass this year, she at least has a few matches under her belt on the surface. This is the case both in 2024 and overall as a professional.
The Elo ratings paint a similar picture. Wang's grass-court Elo is 97.3 points higher than the Slovak's.
While on clay this would be a totally different story, on grass you can look for the Chinese to prevail.
Pick: Wang ML (-140 via FanDuel)
