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Garbine Muguruza vs. Alize Cornet
| Muguruza Odds | -600 |
| Cornet Odds | +440 |
| Over/Under | 19.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here. | |
Alize Cornet was able to advance in the first round of the Australian Open with a 6-3, 6-3 win against Viktoriya Tomova.
It was a typical match for Cornet, where the serve numbers were mediocre, but she returned beautifully. Cornet only won 60% of her service points, but she won 57% of both her overall return points and 57% of the points off of Tomova’s first serve.
Cornet broke serve six times in nine service games and helped put the two warmup tournament defeats to Naomi Osaka and Nuria Parrizas-Diaz behind her.
Cornet actually got a set from the world number 14th-ranked Osaka, however, and certainly held her own out there. She did a great of converting the break points she was given, going 2/3 on break points and winning 70% of her first serves.
In the second set (the set she won), Cornet was able to put things together on return as well, keeping Osaka to 50% of her first serves won and 46% of her second serves won.
Garbine Muguruza was also able to move past a defeat in the Sydney warmup tournament, following her loss to Daria Kasatkina with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over Clara Burel.
It was a tough match for Muguruza, with Burel putting a lot of balls back in play and scrambling well, forcing Muguruza to take control of points herself.
Muguruza was very patient and hit 22 winners compared to 20 unforced errors, but she really struggled to pull away from Burel and often found herself unable to finish points off. If Burel did not give away 12 points with double faults, this match could have been even tighter.
Playing against the consistency of Burel should not have been anything new for Muguruza. After a strong first match of the year against the hard-hitting Ekaterina Alexandrova, the consistent depth that Kasatkina showcased in the quarterfinals of Sydney gave Muguruza fits.
Kasatkina is a much better player than Burel, with a bigger weapon in her forehand and both more depth and heaviness to her groundstrokes. Muguruza was only able to win 54% of her service points during that match and was broken four times.
Betting Value
This will be Muguruza’s third match in a row against a player who is very solid from the baseline and possesses good counterpunching skills. The Spaniard will be looking for smoother seas in this match, as she lost to Kasatkina and struggled to break down Burel.
Interestingly enough, while Muguruza is certainly the much more aggressive player than Cornet, she had less winners and less unforced errors than Cornet during their respective first-round matchups.
Now, at least part of that is due to Cornet being able to swing more freely against a weaker opponent in Tomova, while Muguruza didn’t want to gift points against such a solid player in Burel, but it’s still interesting to note.
The line for this match currently sits at 5.5 games. This feels like a game too many to be giving Cornet. The Frenchwoman isn’t going to beat herself, she has great consistent depth, and can track balls down and frustrate Muguruza like Kasatkina and Burel did.
That’s what Cornet did in their most recent meeting last season in Berlin, forcing Muguruza to hit so many extra shots during her come-from-behind victory over the Spaniard. Sure, that match was on grass, but grass for Wimbledon-champion Muguruza certainly isn’t a weakness, and Cornet doesn’t particularly tailor her game for the different surfaces.
While Muguruza is the deserved favorite, 5.5 games is too much here.
Pick: Cornet +5.5 games (-110 at PointsBet)
