Sabalenka vs Navarro Odds
| Sabalenka Odds | -465 |
| Navarro Odds | +350 |
| Over/Under | 20.5 (-126 / -108) |
| Time | How to Watch | Thursday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch US Open tennis, click here. | |
Aryna Sabalenka dismissed Qinwen Zheng in a dominant 6-1, 6-2 US Open quarterfinal victory over the Chinese.
Sabalenka is now set to take on Emma Navarro, who defeated Paula Badosa 6-2, 7-5 to advance to the semifinals.
Read on for my full Sabalenka vs Navarro pick ahead of this US Open semifinal.
Sabalenka Dismantling Competition
While Sabalenka hit just 16 winners against 19 unforced errors, she still won 67% of service points and 49% of her return points. And the Belarusian wasn't broken on her own serve while breaking Zheng's serve on four occasions.
Sabalenka won the Australian Open earlier this year and has been incredible on hard courts in 2024. This season, the 26-year old is 28-6 on hard courts. During the summer hard-court swing alone, Sabalenka is now on a 10-match winning streak, including a WTA title in Cincinnati and a 14-2 overall record.
And, the Belarusian has showcased sustained success on hard courts. Sabalenka is an incredible 290-119 as a professional on the surface.
Sabalenka's serve is a massive weapon. This year in New York, she's won over two-thirds of her first-serve points and only been broken four times in her five matches. In 2024, the 26-year old is at least in the top-eight for aces along with the percentage of service points won and service games won.
And, behind her serve, Sabalenka dominates from the baseline with massive groundstrokes. She positions herself aggressively and rips control of points from her opponents with controlled aggression.
Sabalenka gets excellent pop from both wings, but she's especially dangerous with her forehand, which is perhaps, the best shot overall in the entire women's tournament.
The World No. 2 also anticipates where her opponents' shots are going well.
And while she can lose her rally tolerance on occasion, the Belarusian has been locked in from the baseline for the past couple of weeks.
Navarro Continues to Break Through
Navarro won 67% of her service points and was only broken twice. The American also won 50% of her return points, breaking Badosa's serve five times. Navarro hit 12 winners versus 15 unforced errors in the match.
The 23-year old is now an amazing 31-10 on hard courts this year, with a 77-49 career-record on the surface. Earlier this season, Navarro won her first WTA title against Elise Mertens in Hobart.
The American doesn't have any massive weapons, but she is an all-around solid tennis player. She places her serve well and hits with excellent precision from the baseline.
Navarro's forehand, in particular, is placed very well, with Navarro not only dictating from this wing due to the heaviness of the shot, but because of her precision.
The 23-year old's foot work is outstanding and she constructs points well, understanding shot selection and patience on the court. She spreads the court effectively, hitting with sharp angles, although her slice needs work.
Navarro's lack of overwhelming firepower leaves her vulnerable against in-form big ball strikers, however. This is also the case on her serve.
In addition, Navarro's backhand is not a strength. While she can sometimes place the ball successfully from this wing, it also is more prone to breaking down.
Sabalenka vs Navarro Pick
While the head to head is tied 1-1, Sabalenka's current level is much closer to when she routinely defeated Navarro at the French Open compared to her Indian Wells defeat (both this year).
Ultimately, Navarro has nothing to hurt Sabalenka with in the Belarusian's current form. This is the type of match where the American is going to be punished by her lack of a "signature weapon."
Sabalenka has a huge first serve, so Navarro won't be able to get into nearly as many service games as she did against Badosa.
In addition, the World No. 2 should dictate play from the ground with her huge groundstrokes, dragging Navarro around until she finds an opening to hit into.
And, unlike Badosa who hit just 10 winners against 35 unforced errors in their quarterfinal matchup, Sabalenka is hitting with controlled aggression right now and shouldn't be nearly as generous.
Last year's US Open final loss to Coco Gauff should also help Sabalenka prepare for the crowd being against her.
Finally, Sabalenka's overall Elo rating is 203.1 points higher than Navarro's and her hard-court Elo is 165.5 points above the American's.
