Sabalenka vs Zheng Odds
| Sabalenka Odds | -350 |
| Zheng Odds | +280 |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-110 / -120) |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch US Open tennis, click here. | |
Aryna Sabalenka comfortably defeated Elise Mertens 6-2, 6-4 to reach the US Open quarterfinals.
Sabalenka will now face off with Olympic gold medalist Qinwen Zheng, who beat Donna Vekic 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-2 in the Round of 16.
Read on for my full Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng pick ahead of this US Open quarterfinal.
Sabalenka Continues to Dominate
Against Mertens, Sabalenka won 67% of her service points and didn't get broken. She won 46% of her return points, breaking on three occasions. And the Belarusian did well to dictate baseline rallies, hitting 41 winners against 28 unforced errors.
It was yet another win to add to Sabalenka's tally in 2024. The 26-year-old is 43-11 overall and 27-6 on hard courts this year. This includes a title at the season's other hard-court Slam, the Australian Open, where Sabalenka routinely beat Zheng in the final.
As a professional, the Belarusian is incredibly strong on hard courts, going 289-119 for her career.
Sabalenka is a dangerous opponent when she's in form, as is the case now. For starters, she has a huge first serve. The Belarusian ranks in the top-eight (at least) in 2024 for aces and both the percentage of service points won and service games won.
And, behind that serve, Sabalenka plays brutal baseline tennis. She takes the racquet out of her opponents' hands with her controlled aggression from both wings. Sabalenka positions herself aggressively on the court and can turn neutral-ball rallies in her favor quickly, especially when utilizing her powerful forehand.
And, while Sabalenka can occasionally lose control of her groundstrokes, particularly when hitting her backhand, this hasn't been the case for much of the past couple of seasons.
Zheng Keeps Moving Through Draw
Zheng hit 10 aces and won 81% of her first serves against Vekic, only getting broken twice. She will want to improve on her 41% second-serve points won and her six double faults. But even with the second-serve struggles, she still hit 33 winners versus 21 unforced errors.
Besides making the Australian Open final, Zheng won gold at the Paris Olympics, although that gold medal match was on clay. The 21-year old is 35-12 in total this year, with a 15-6 mark on hard courts. For her career, Zheng has a strong 124-56 record on the surface.
Zheng has a huge first serve. This season, she ranks in the top 10 for aces, percentage of first-serve points won, service points won and service games won.
She has powerful groundstrokes from the baseline, using her forehand especially well to dictate play. With the right mindset, she can overwhelm her opponents with pace.
There are times, however, when Zheng has times in matches where she becomes too passive during baseline exchanges. And her backhand tends to break down under intense pressure, the type of firepower that Sabalenka brings to the table.
It's also worth noting that Zheng, during the summer hard-court swing, has still not had a match where she's won more than 50% of her second serves (six matches).
Sabalenka vs Zheng Pick
Sabalenka not only routinely defeated Zheng at the Australian Open, but she beat her at this tournament last year in straight sets as well.
Zheng doesn't like this matchup for a few reasons: Sabalenka has the better controlled aggression and doesn't allow her to dictate nearly as often as Zheng would like.
Sabalenka rips control of the baseline from Zheng and effectively targets her backhand, which should be the weakest shot on the court.
And the Belarusian also doesn't allow Zheng to get away with her patches of passive play, punishing the rally balls that Zheng hits without a purpose.
In their Australian Open final, Zheng won just 38% of her second serves. Given her struggles recently — even when emerging victorious and winning a high percentage of second serves — this is particularly concerning against Sabalenka.
The Belarusian should be looking to attack her vulnerable second serve, which should be the key to digging into Zheng's service games.
