ATP Atlanta rolls on and Wednesday's matchups look incredible!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups — Nishioka vs Vukic and de Minaur vs Kokkinakis.
Read on for my ATP Atlanta picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
ATP Atlanta Odds, Picks
Yoshihito Nishioka (-120) vs Aleksander Vukic (-105)
3:15 p.m. ET
Yoshihito Nishioka last played at Wimbledon, where he fell 4-6, 3-6, 3-6 to Daniel Galan. Nishioka won just 55% of his service points, including 35% of his second serves, getting broken on six occasions. While Nishioka did win 51% of his second-serve returns, he only won 21% of his first-serve returns, breaking twice.
Nishioka will be happy to move back onto hard courts, where he is an impressive 273-158 for his career. This season, though, Nishioka is just 7-6 on hard.
While he lacks power to his game, Nishioka's movement, anticipation and precision on his groundstrokes are world-class. Nishioka also gets consistent depth, has a high tennis IQ and utilizes excellent variety.
Aleksander Vukic defeated Ethan Quinn 7-6(5), 6-3 in the opening round of Atlanta. Vukic won 69% of his service points, including 75% of his first serves, and wasn't broken. On return, the Aussie won 48% of his second-serve returns and broke on two occasions.
Vukic is an incredible 26-12 this year on hard, although much of that success was at the Challenger level. Vukic has a big first serve and a huge, cutting forehand. He positions himself on court well and he has a nasty backhand slice. But, his backhand is suspect and Vukic can lose his rally tolerance at times.
Nishioka's heavy, lefty forehand into Vukic's weaker backhand should give the Aussie fits. Nishioka plays smart tennis and should be able to effectively attack the Aussie's backhand wing. Nishioka is also solid from the baseline and, compared to Quinn, shouldn't gift nearly as much away.
While Vukic has a big serve, Nishioka's return game can, at least partially, neutralize this advantage. In the past 52 weeks, Nishioka is a top-12 player in percentage of 2nd-serve returns and return games won.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Nishioka's overall Elo is 151.7 points higher than Vukic's and his hard-court Elo is 133.9 points above the Aussie's.
Pick: Nishioka ML (-120 via BetMGM)
Alex de Minaur (-325) vs Thanasi Kokkinakis (+240)
7:05 p.m. ET
Alex de Minaur most recently played at Wimbledon, where he fell 3-6, 4-6, 4-6 to Matteo Berrettini in the second round. De Minaur won 70% of his first serves, but only 49% of his second serves, getting broken on three occasions. The Aussie – normally a great returner – won just 25% of his return points and didn't break once.
De Minaur clearly loves playing in Atlanta, as he is a two-time champion, including last season. He is 11-5 in 2023 on hard courts and has an impressive 175-100 career-record on the surface.
The strength's of the Aussie's game are his court coverage, anticipation, consistent and fitness, the latter of which is especially important in Atlanta's heat and humidity. The quick courts also give de Minaur's groundstrokes extra pop, allowing him to play more offensive tennis than usual.
Thanasi Kokkinakis survived an extremely tight opening match in Atlanta, defeating Gael Monfils 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(5). Despite winning just 50% of his second serves, Kokkinakis won 76% of his first serves and didn't face a break point after the first set. The Aussie only won 30% of his return points, breaking once.
Kokkinakis, who has been struggling with a pectoral injury, is a magnificent 19-9 on hard courts this season. The Aussie has a big first serve and follows it up with aggressive forehands, allowing him to dictate baseline play. Kokkinakis positions himself well on court and understands the right times to move forward. He is also an excellent net player.
However, Kokkinakis can lose patience on court and has patches of inconsistency. His backhand is particularly prone to breaking down.
De Minaur should continue to find success in Atlanta. The quick conditions should allow him to play more offensively. But, at the same time, he's still able to defend and counterpunch successfully, which should be especially important in defusing Kokkinakis' power. De Minaur is also one of the fittest players on tour and shouldn't struggle in the sweltering conditions.
His return should be particularly vital against Kokkinakis' big serve. In the past 52 weeks, he is a top-eight player in percentage of first-serve returns and return games won.
Finally, de Minaur's overall Elo is 139.3 points higher than Kokkinakis' and his hard-Elo is 122.5 points above his compatriot's.
Pick: de Minaur -1.5 sets (-110 via PointsBet)
