ATP Buenos Aires has been incredible to watch so far and the fascinating matches continue on Tuesday.
I’ve found value on two matches on Tuesday's order of play for us to exploit. These battles will be Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Daniel Elahi Galan and Sebastian Baez vs. Dusan Lajovic.
Read on for my ATP picks on Tuesday, February 14.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
ATP Buenos Aires Odds, Picks
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (-120) vs. Daniel Elahi Galan (+102)
1:30 p.m. ET
Ugo Carabelli qualified for Buenos Aires, defeating Facundo Bagnis 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-2 in the final qualifying round. While Ugo Carabelli got broken six times, he did win 47% of his return points. This includes 46% of the points on Bagnis' first serve, allowing Ugo Carabelli to break on seven occasions.
Dating back to Ugo Carabelli's first-round qualifying victory over Timofey Skatov, the Argentine has broken a combined 12 times in qualifying, generating 28 break points.
Ugo Carabelli has played every match this season on clay, compiling an 8-4 record in 2023. In his career, the Argentine is 229-126 on clay, including a 36-19 record in 2022. Ugo Carabelli doesn't have much power, but he's extremely quick, very fit, anticipates well and neutralizes power effectively.
Galan's struggles continued last week in Cordoba, falling to Tomas Barrios Vera 6-7(2), 2-6 in the opening round. Galan won just 61% of his first serves and 54% of his service points overall.
He has had a rough start to the year, going 0-3 to start 2023, and Galan has lost five-straight matches overall. In fact, dating back to 2022, Galan has won just one of his last 11 sets.
While Galan can hit with controlled aggression from the baseline, he's been erratic with his groundstrokes lately.
Ugo Carabelli, with his consistent depth and counterpunching ability, will absorb Galan's power from the baseline and extend rallies. This will force the unforced errors to flow from already-inconsistent Colombian.
Pick: Ugo Carabelli ML (-120 via FanDuel)
Sebastian Baez (-200) vs. Dusan Lajovic (+168)
4:30 p.m. ET
Baez won the title in Cordoba last week, defeating Federico Coria 6-1, 3-6, 6-3. Baez won 73% of his first-serve points in the match and was broken only twice. In fact, Baez was broken just five times in four matches all week.
He had lost his first three matches of 2023 and was on a six-match losing streak overall before Cordoba, so the title was very important to the Argentine. Baez hits his spots on serve and plays with controlled aggression. He counterpunches well and gets incredible pop on his groundstrokes. However, Baez can be inconsistent at times.
Dusan Lajovic made it through Buenos Aires qualifying, beating Felipe Meligeni Alves 6-3, 6-3 in the final qualifying round. Lajovic won 45% of his return points and broke four times. He also made 88% of his first serves and won 76% of these points, allowing the Serb to go unbroken all match.
In both of Lajovic's qualifying matches (Meligeni Alves and Renzo Olivo) Lajovic has won over 75% of his first serves and been broken a combined one time.
Dating back to 2022, Lajovic has now won seven of his last eight clay-court matches. As a professional, the Serb is now 353-219 on the dirt, which encompasses a 24-15 record in 2022. Lajovic is a crafty player, spreading the ball throughout the court and using his variety to keep opponents off-balance. He gets consistent depth on his groundstrokes and can hit into openings, although his backhand can be a weakness.
Baez will certainly have some mental fatigue. This is a potential let-down spot for the Argentine.
As Lajovic showcased against Meligeni Alves' huge forehand, he is absorbing pace well and effectively counterpunching right now. The Serb has the defensive abilities and court-craft to neutralize Baez's groundstrokes and make the Argentine uncomfortable.
Lajovic, having breezed through qualifying, is also used to the conditions in Buenos Aires, while Baez will be making a rushed transition to the new locale.
Pick: Lajovic +3.5 games (-125 via FanDuel)
