The Turin ATP Finals has been incredible so far and the fun continues on Monday!
And I’ve found value on both of Monday's matchups — Alcaraz vs Zverev and Medvedev vs Rublev.
Read on for my ATP Finals predictions for Monday, November 13.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
ATP Finals Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz (-235) vs Alexander Zverev (+188)
8:30 a.m. ET
Carlos Alcaraz last played in Paris (hard), falling 3-6, 4-6 to Roman Safiullin in his opening match. Alcaraz won just 57% of his service points in the set, getting broken on four occasions. The Spaniard won just 37% of his return points, although he did break twice.
Despite the loss to Safiullin, Alcaraz is still an incredible 26-7 on hard courts this season. For his career, the Spaniard is 86-28 on hard. Alcaraz is an explosive player with a well-placed first serve and massive, heavy, precise forehand that erupt off his racquet. He is incredibly quick, has excellent variety (particularly the drop shot) and counterpunches effectively.
However, Alcaraz's shot selection can be suspect, going for too much at times. He also seems to be running out of steam (relatively), with a 5-3 record since the US Open.
Alexander Zverev most recently lost 6-7 (2), 4-6 to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the round of 16 in Paris. Zverev won just 61% of his service points, including 42% on his second serve, but was broken just twice. The German won only 31% of his return points, breaking once.
Zverev still has an impressive 28-15 hard-court record in 2023, with a 367-141 professional-mark on the surface. Zverev, who has a top-ten serve rating over the last 52 weeks, cracks massive first serves into precise targets. He anticipates well and gets consistent depth from the baseline. However, Zverev's biggest strength is his backhand, which he uses to dominate from the baseline.
But, Zverev's forehand is prone to breaking down and his variety can be suspect.
Alcaraz has been the better player for much of the season, but he's looked "off" since the US Open. His rally tolerance has been shaky and he's not constructing points effectively, trying to end points too early.
And Alcaraz's physical style has also seemed to have taken a toll on the Spaniard at this point in the year.
The Turin court played very quick last season, so if that rings true again, Zverev should be able to win plenty of points with his serve.
In addition, Zverev's consistent depth and patience on court should frustrate the burnt-out Spaniard and allow Zverev to hang around, if not win outright.
Pick: Zverev +3.5 games (-136 via FanDuel)
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Daniil Medvedev (-190) vs Andrey Rublev (+145)
3:15 p.m. ET
Daniil Medvedev fell 3-6, 7-6 (4), 6-7 (2) to Grigor Dimitrov in his opening match in Paris, his latest tournament. Medvedev won just 60% of his service points, getting broken four times. The Russian also won only 33% of his return points, although he did break on three occasions.
Medvedev still has a 47-10 record in 2023 on hard courts. As a professional, the Russian is an amazing 340-125 on hard. Medvedev has a huge first serve and is extremely solid from the baseline. His placement is incredible and it is extraordinarily difficult to hit through Medvedev from the ground. Medvedev's ability to hit into targets also allows him to turn defense into offense effectively.
Medvedev's return positioning is too defensive, however, and his focus can waver during matches.
Andrey Rublev most recently made the semifinals of Paris, but lost 7-5, 6-7 (3), 5-7 to Novak Djokovic. Rublev won 68% of his service points, getting broken twice. With that said, the Russian won just 31% of his return points, breaking on two occasions.
Rublev is now 29-15 on hard this year, with a strong 280-147 career-record on the surface. Rublev hits his spots with his serve, but his main strength is his forehand. The Russian dictates baseline from this wing, hitting powerful, heavy forehands. Rublev's court positioning is strong and he constructs points effectively.
With that said, his backhand is improved, yet still prone to breaking down, he sometimes mentally checks out of matches and his variety is weak.
Medvedev leads the head to head 7-2, having won all five sets this year, for a reason. He gets a lot of returns in play and he is incredibly consistent from the baseline.
Medvedev's incredible defensive abilities allow him to defend successfully against Rublev's forehand until either Rublev overhits from that wing or his backhand breaks down.
In addition, Medevedev is much more adept in cat-and-mouse exchanges compared to Rublev.
Finally, Medvedev's overall Elo rating is 79.7 points above Rublev's and his hard-court Elo is 96.5 points higher.
Pick: Medvedev -2.5 games (-120 via BetMGM)
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