We are onto the semifinals of the ATP Finals and Saturday's matches should be incredible.
I’ve found betting picks on both of Saturday's matchups — Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz.
Read on for my ATP Finals predictions for Saturday, Nov. 18.
ATP Finals Predictions
Jannik Sinner (-160) vs Daniil Medvedev (+125)
8:45 a.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Sinner fought past Holger Rune 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 to close out his Turin group play. Sinner won 74% of his service points and was only broken once. The Italian also won 59% of his second-serve returns, breaking on three occasions.
Sinner is now 44-8 this season on hard courts, with an impressive 174-65 career record on the surface. He has a massive first serve, having only been broken twice all week. In addition, the Italian has the third-highest return rating over the last 52 weeks. His court positioning is strong and he hits with controlled aggression from the ground, thriving in the quick conditions.
However, Sinner's defensive skills are suspect and he was touching his back during the Rune match.
An unfocused Medvedev fell 4-6, 4-6 to Carlos Alcaraz in his final Turin round-robin matchup. Medvedev won 64% of his service points, getting broken on two occasions. In addition, the Russian only won 27% of his return points and failed to break.
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Medvedev is an incredible 49-11 on hard courts this year, going 342-126 as a professional on the surface. He has a big first serve and the highest return rating on tour over the past 52 weeks. He moves well, anticipates effectively and successfully blunts his opponents' attacking groundstrokes. He also showcases high consistency and precision during baseline exchanges.
With that said, Medvedev's positioning and mindset on court are too defensive, given the quick conditions.
While Sinner is not the best defensive player, given how Medvedev hands over the control of points to opponents with his court positioning, the Italian should be on top of the baseline, dictating play.
And throughout the week, Sinner has flourished in this role. His controlled aggression, particularly with his forehand, has been superb, and he should be able to drag Medvedev around the court until he finds an opening.
While Sinner seemed to have slight back issues during the Rune match, it appeared to have minimal impact. And given how defensive Medvedev has been, Sinner likely won't be the one on the defensive, under physical duress.
Instead, the Italian will be in his comfort zone, playing first-strike tennis.
Pick: Sinner -1.5 games (-120 via BetMGM)
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Novak Djokovic (-155) vs Carlos Alcaraz (+124)
3 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Djokovic beat Hubert Hurkacz 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1 to close out Turin round-robin play. Djokovic won 74% of his service points and only faced one break point. On return, the Serb won 68% of his second-serve returns, breaking on two occasions.
Djokovic, who won both hard-court Majors this season, has an unbelievable 35-2 record in 2023 on hard. As a professional, he is 729-136 on the surface. He is tied for the third-highest serve rating, has the fourth-highest return rating and the highest under-pressure rating over the last 52 weeks.
Djokovic hits with patience and controlled aggression from both wings, but his backhand is his biggest weapon. He is an incredible mover, defends well and counterpunches effectively. He also showcases excellent variety.
With that said, the Serb has just been a little looser from the baseline lately compared to the standard he has set for himself.
Alcaraz defeated Medvedev 6-4, 6-4 to advance to the Turin semifinals. He won 73% of his service points and wasn't broken. The Spaniard also won 36% of his return points, breaking twice.
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Alcaraz has a strong 28-8 record on hard this season, going 88-29 for his career. He has a well-placed first serve and both the second-highest return rating and under-pressure rating.
His game is built around his massive forehand, which explodes off of his racquet and immediately puts opponents on defense. But Alcaraz can play offense with his backhand, too, and turns defense into offense very quickly with his foot speed and defensive skills. His variety, particularly his drop shot, is also outstanding.
However, Alcaraz has overhit and has been impatient at times in recent matches during baseline exchanges.
Djokovic, with his incredible consistency and controlled aggression, should take advantage of the lapses in Alcaraz's baseline game.
Djokovic has the defensive capabilities to neutralize the Spaniard's attacking groundstrokes, baiting Alcaraz into overhitting. The Serb can blunt Alcaraz's forehand power and has the clear edge in backhand-to-backhand rallies,
And Djokovic has the speed, anticipation and control to effectively handle Alcaraz's variety.
Finally, Djokovic's overall Elo rating is 68 points higher than Alcaraz's and his hard-court Elo is 79.5 points above the Spaniard's.
Pick: Djokovic -1.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
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