ATP Marrakech continues to produce incredible tennis and the quarterfinals are here!
I’ve found value on two of Friday's quarterfinal matches, featuring Evans vs Vavassori and Griekspoor vs Carballes Baena.
Read on for my ATP Marrakech picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
ATP Marrakech Odds, Picks
Dan Evans (-135) vs Andrea Vavassori (+106)
6:30 a.m. ET
Dan Evans snapped his losing streak, defeating an erratic Alexei Popyrin 6-1, 6-3. Evans won an impressive 73% of his service points, saving both break points that he faced. On return, the Brit was all over Popryin's second serve, winning 74% of his second-serve returns. Evans broke on four occasions.
He was on a six-match losing streak, but Evans seemed to find his game against Popryin. For his career, the Brit is a solid 50-44 on clay courts.
Evans hits his spots on serve and has excellent variety, dragging opponents around the court with his touch shots. He keeps the ball out of opponents' strike zones with his backhand slice as well, although clay does neutralize his slice a bit.
Finally, Evans can ramp up the pace on his groundstrokes, particularly his forehand.
Andrea Vavassori snuck past Jaume Munar from a set down, beating the Spaniard 6-7(4), 7-6(6), 6-4. Vavassori won 75% of first-serve points, getting broken just twice across the three-plus hour match. On return, the Italian won 59% of his second-serve returns, generating nine break points and breaking three times.
Vavassori improved his clay-court record to 14-4 in 2023, with a 151-108 record on the dirt as a professional. The Italian has a huge first serve that he uses to get ahead in his service games. He likes to attack the net and plays aggressively, particularly from the forehand wing.
Still, Vavassori isn't the best mover and his one-handed backhand is prone to breaking down.
He just played a long match against a physical player in Munar. Now, he has to go out and play against another solid-from-the-baseline player in Evans.
Evans' tennis IQ is a strength and he should extend rallies and work the ball around the court, testing Vavassori's legs and rally tolerance. Evans' point construction is fantastic and he should effectively target Vavassori's backhand.
And Evans' passing shots are at a level where he should find success when Vavassori attacks the net.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Evans' overall Elo is 171 points higher than Vavassori's and his clay-court Elo is 71 points above the Italian's.
Pick: Evans ML (-135 via PointsBet)
Tallon Griekspoor (-180) vs Roberto Carballes Baena (+140)
8 a.m. ET
Tallon Griekspoor recovered from a poor first set to beat Elias Ymer 1-6, 6-3, 6-4. Despite winning just 30% of his second-serve points and getting broken six times, Griekspoor did win 76% of his first serves. On return, the Dutchman won 46% of his return points, including 58% on Ymer's second serve, breaking six times.
Griekspoor has an impressive 157-85 record on clay as a professional. The Dutchman's game is centered around his massive first serve and forehand. When these two shots are firing, Griekspoor can put a lot of pressure on his opposition.
But, Griekspoor's backhand is hit-or-miss and he will need to hit his second serve better than he did, if he wants to advance further in Marrakech.
Roberto Carballes Baena was fortunate Dimitar Kuzmanov retired early in their second-round showdown, with the Spaniard winning via retirement 2-0. Carballes Baena won seven of the first eight points before Kuzmanov pulled the plug. The Spaniard should be fresh for his showdown versus Griekspoor.
While Carballes Baena is just 4-4 on clay for the season, in his career the Spaniard has a 479-284 record on the dirt. Yes, Carballes Baena has played 763 career-matches on clay. Carballes Baena is extremely quick around the court, is a cerebral player and is very consistent while maintain depth on his groundstrokes.
The Spaniard counterpunches effectively and his forehand is also becoming a weapon, although not nearly to the extent of Griekspoor's forehand.
This matchup will feature offense against counterpunching, as Griekspoor looks to hit through Carballes Baena. However, against Ymer the Dutchman was way too erratic and his second serve struggled.
Carballes Baena puts a lot of returns in play and can ramp up the pace on his forehand to punish the Griekspoor's second serves, which can sit up in the box.
And, given that Griekspoor's movement isn't great, Carballes Baena should spread the court and keep the Dutchman moving.
Pick: Carballes Baena +2.5 games (-105 via PointsBet)
