Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds
| Davidovich Fokina Odds | +340 |
| Tsitsipas Odds | -450 |
| Over/Under | 21.5 |
| Time | 8:30 a.m. ET |
| Odds via BetMGM. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
We have reached the final of the first clay-court Masters 1000. as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina battles Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo.
Davidovich Fokina continued his impressive run as he beat Grigor Dimitrov in three sets to advance to the final. While it would have been reasonable to expect a let down from Davidovich Fokina after taking down Novak Djokovic in the second round, the Spaniard has done a great job of staying focused and continuing to play at a high level.
Against Dimitrov, Davidovich Fokina broke the Bulgarian's serve five times, winning 38% of his return points. Davidovich Fokina has broken serve 28 times this week in his five matches in Monte Carlo combined. He's generated 75 break points in these matches, an astonishingly high number.
Beyond Davidovich Fokina's return, his baseline prowess has been incredible. The Spaniard is extraordinarily fast around the court and gets great consistent depth on his groundstrokes. Davidovich Fokina has also done a great job this week of understanding the right moments within points to ramp up the aggression on his groundstrokes.
But, where Davidovich Fokina is especially good is in his variety and ability to force opponents out of their comfort zones. Davidovich Fokina won't allow opponents to just trade blows with him from the baseline; his drop shot is outstanding and he's so smart about changing the rhythm of points through different depths and angles.
Stefanos Tsitsipas advanced to the semifinals in a straightforward fashion, defeating Alexander Zverev 6-4, 6-2. Tsitsipas will be relieved to not have another rollercoaster match like he did in the quarterfinals, where Diego Schwartzman almost beat him from 2-6, *2-5 down.
Tsitsipas won 75% of his service points and was only broken twice when facing Zverev. On return, Tsitsipas won 53% of his return points and broke Zverev's serve five times. In every match this week, Tsitsipas won over 65% of his first serves while holding opponents to under 45% second serves won. Tsitsipas has had a well-rounded week.
The Greek won Monte Carlo last season and is clearly comfortable in the conditions here. He's hitting his spots on serve and is doing a great job of controlling the baseline while still hitting within himself and playing his game. Tsitsipas' movement is underrated and he is hitting with good precision on his touch shots.
While Tsitsipas' forehand is known to be a big weapon, his backhand is also holding up well. When opponents cannot effectively target the Tsitsipas backhand, options become very limited for where opponents can go to make an impression on Tsitsipas' game.
Betting Value
This match will come down to whether Tsitsipas can dominate the baseline and consistently force Davidovich Fokina into defensive positions on the court, or whether Davidovich Fokina can weave his web and take Tsitsipas out of his comfort zone.
I believe the latter will occur.
Davidovich Fokina has been so effective returning this week and creating opportunities to break, I think he will have at least some success against the big Tsitsipas serve.
And the Spaniard's variety will be so important for avoiding scenario's where Tsitsipas is dragging Davidovich Fokina around the court and wearing him down before blasting a winner.
If Davidovich Fokina can mix up his spins and use his drop shot effectively, this opens up a new dimension to the match. This will force Tsitsipas off of the baseline and play the match much more on Davidovich Fokina's terms.
And while this is Davidovich Fokina's first singles final on the ATP Tour, given how he's handled both facing Djokovic on center court and the subsequent matches in Monte Carlo with heightened expectations, I doubt the moment will be too big for the Spaniard.
At plus money, it's hard to look away from Davidovich Fokina to win a set in this match.
Pick: Davidovich Fokina to win a set (+120 at BetMGM)
