ATP Monte Carlo continues to produce spectacular tennis and we are into the quarterfinals.
I’ve found value on two of Friday's quarterfinal matches, featuring Rublev vs Struff and Tsitsipas vs Fritz.
Read on for my ATP Monte Carlo picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
ATP Monte Carlos Odds, Picks
Andrey Rublev (-250) vs Jan-Lennard Struff (+195)
5 a.m. ET
Andrey Rublev continues to excel in Monte Carlo, beating Karen Khachanov 7-6(4), 6-2. Rublev won 67% of his service points, only getting broken once. On return, the Russian won 50% of his first-serve returns and broke serve on three occasions.
While this is Rublev's first clay event this season, the Russian has a strong 97-60 career-record on the dirt. Rublev's game is centered around his heavy forehand. He hits with controlled aggression from this wing. Riblev hits his spots on serve and plays with power from the backhand wing as well.
However, Rublev's backhand is prone to breaking down, he doesn't have overwhelming power on his serve and he can mentally go in-and-out of matches.
Jan-Lennard Struff qualified for Monte Carlo, and he defeated Casper Ruud 6-1, 7-6(6) in the round of 16. Struff won 79% of his first serves, only getting broken twice.
Struff has an impressive 267-160 record on clay as a professional. Including qualifying, the German has only dropped one set this week, winning over 50% of his second serves in all matches and at least 75% of his first serves in 4-of-5 of his matches in Monaco. Struff has a massive serve and powerful groundstrokes, particularly his forehand.He is strong at the net and understands the right moments to move forward.
But, Struff's rally tolerance is always a question when he plays.
He has the serve to get himself out of jams and take the racquet of Rublev's hands. This should frustrate Rublev, who does not have an even temperament.
Struff just played against a strong, forehand-centric player with a lot of success. He dictated play from the baseline, not allowing the Norwegian to drag him around the court with his forehand.
Look for Struff to take a similar approach in this matchup. He should control the baseline, targeting Rublev's weaker backhand and creating short balls for himself.
Pick: Struff +3.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-240) vs Taylor Fritz (+185)
6:30 a.m. ET
Stefanos Tsitsipas defeated Nicolas Jarry 6-3, 6-4 in the last round. Tsitsipas won 80% of his first serves, going unbroken. The clay gave Tsitsipas some extra time on return, as he won 70% of his second-serve returns and generated 10 break points, breaking on two occasions.
Tsitsipas, a former Roland Garros finalist, has an unbelievable 160-50 record on clay as a professional. He is at his best on the dirt, as the slower surface helps his return game and gives him more time to set up on his backhand. The clay also accentuates the Greek's heavy forehand and plays into his physicality. Tsitsipas' serve is terrific and he's got excellent variety, including net skills.
However, even on clay there are times when the Greek's backhand breaks down.
Taylor Fritz came back to beat Jiri Lehecka 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 in Monaco. Fritz won 69% of his overall service points, getting broken twice. After winning just 20% of his return points in the first set, the American won over 40% of return points in the ensuing two sets, breaking four times across the final two sets.
Fritz is not at his best on clay, but he does have a solid 45-36 career-record on the surface. Fritz has a massive first serve and controls the baseline with his heavy, well-placed backhand. Fritz can also ramp up the pace on his forehand. But, the American is a mediocre mover and struggles on touch shots. In addition, his forehand can break down at times.
Tsitsipas has the more dynamic game. He's got the better variety, transition game and is the better mover of the two. I trust the Greek's craftiness and rally tolerance more than Fritz's on clay.
While on a quicker surface, I would worry that Fritz will be able to rush Tsitsipas' backhand on serve and in backhand-to-backhand exchanges, the slower surface minimizes this concern. In addition, Tsitsipas is wily enough to change the pattern of play, ensuring that the ball is on Fritz's forehand wing more often than the American would like.
Finally, while Tsitsipas' overall Elo rating is just 24 points above Fritz's, his clay Elo is 187.8 points higher than the American's.
Pick: Tsitsipas -2.5 games (-140 via PointsBet)
