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The first round continues on at the Australian Open with more fascinating matches on Monday's order of play.
I’ve found betting value on two of the contests for us to exploit.
Read on for my Australian Open picks for January 16.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Australian Open matches.
Karolina Pliskova (-375) vs. Xiyu Wang (+280)
7 p.m. ET
Karolina Pliskova qualified for her most recent tournament in Adelaide, but fell 2-6, 4-6 to Danielle Collins in the opening round. Pliskova only won 48% of her service points, including just 19% of her second serves. She was broken five times in nine service games.
Pliskova has started the year 2-2, which is fitting given that she was 21-21 overall and 12-12 on hard courts last season. Typically, she has a huge serve that she uses to dominate her service games. The Czech is an attacking player, with her flatter groundstrokes skidding through the court.
With that said, Pliskova is not speedy around the court and she has lower-margin groundstrokes, which is a problem when she's not on her game.
Xiyu Wang retired down *3-5 against Karolina Muchova in Auckland. While Wang struggled with her first-serve return against Muchova, winning just 12% first-serve returns, she won won 73% of her own first serves.
The good news for Wang fans, and bettors, is that she appears to have gotten over the illness affecting her in Auckland.
After only winning 52% of her matches in 2021, Wang made a big jump, winning 62% of her matches (58% on hard) in 2022. Wang has a huge lefty serve that often puts her on the front-foot in rallies.
She takes the racquet out of her opponents' hands, both with winners and unforced errors.
Both players have big first serves, meaning that return opportunities should be more important than usual in a typical WTA match and the sets will likely be tight. Wang can keep up on serve and put scoreboard pressure on Pliskova.
She will exploit Pliskova's weaker movement and force her to be on defense more often than she wants to be.
Pick: Wang +4.5 games (-110 via PointsBet)
Lucia Bronzetti (-115) vs. Laura Siegemund (-110)
12:15 a.m. ET
Lucia Bronzetti has gone 3-3 to start the 2023 season, most recently losing 4-6, 3-6 to Anna Blinkova in Hobart (hard). Bronzetti held Blinkova to 58% of her first serves won, but only managed to break one time in 10 return games.
Bronzetti is currently at a career-high ranking of 50 in the world. On hard courts last season, Bronzetti had a few impressive results, including making the fourth round of the Miami Open, the final of the Vancouver $125k, and the semifinals of the Limoges $125k.
She is fast around the court, very consistent from the baseline, and has a high tennis IQ.
Laura Siegemund is 1-3 to start the year, although the competition was tough, including a 4-6, 7-6(3), 4-6 loss to Bernarda Pera most recently in Hobart.
Siegemund won consecutive main-draw matches on hard just once in 2022, going 6-8 on hard overall. The German has good net play and nice variety to her game, spreading the court and employing cutting slices.
However, after being out with a knee ailment, Siegemund's rally tolerance and physicality declined. In addition, Siegemund's serve is not a threat, with the German not having won 65% of her first-serves in any match this season.
Baseline play will be very important in this match, and I trust Bronzetti's consistent depth more than Siegemund's erratic groundstrokes.
Her speed will allow her to track down Siegemund's different shot combinations and she's a strong counterpuncher, which is important for Siegemund's precision on her touch shots drops.
Bronzetti did struggle physically at the US Open, but overall she's in better physical shape than Siegemund and I think she has the advantage in a long match.
Pick: Bronzetti ML (-115 via BetMGM)
