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The third round of the Australian Open has arrived and the fun continues with more fascinating showdowns!
I’ve found value on two of Thursday's matchups — Andreeva vs Parry and Kostyuk vs Avanesyan.
Read on for my Australian Open predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Australian Open Odds, Predictions
Mirra Andreeva (-1250) vs Diane Parry (+700)
10 p.m. ET
Mirra Andreeva demolished Ons Jabeur 6-0, 6-2 to advance to the third round. Andreeva won 75% of her service points and wasn't broken. The Russian also won 59% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
Andreeva is now 33-10 for her career on hard courts with a solid 7-4 mark last season. The 16 year old Russian is a master of all trades. She hits her spots on serve and hits with easy power from the baseline. Her variety is a strength and she also defends well, using her good movement to track many balls down and counterpunch.
Andreeva is still just a bit inexperienced at Majors, although that is becoming less of an issue with each passing match.
Diane Parry defeated Kamilla Rakhimova 7-5, 6-2 in the second round. Parry won 64% of her service points, saving 7-of-8 break points. In addition, the Frenchwoman won 46% of her return points, breaking four times.
Parry doesn't have a strong professional record on hard, going just 33-49 overall and 7-16 in 2023, but she is looking competent on the surface this season. Parry lacks some power, but she has a high tennis IQ and constructs points well. She hits her spots from the baseline, gets consistent depth and is fairly solid from both wings. The Frenchwoman also showcases excellent variety and is a physical player.
However, Parry's backhand can become a liability against higher-level opposition and she can be overpowered, especially on quicker surfaces.
Andreeva's overall Elo rating is 240.3 points higher than Parry's and her hard-court Elo is 288.9 points above the Frenchwoman's.
There's a massive gap between the two both overall and on hard courts. Andreeva can do everything Parry does, just better. The Russian has the speed and tennis IQ to understand how to deal with Parry's variety. And, given her own creative shot-making, she's shouldn't be afraid of cat-and-mouse points against the Frenchwoman.
Andreeva has the power to rip through openings and pressure Parry's weaker one-handed backhand. Both the Russian's serve and return are more reliable than the Frenchwoman's, especially on hard.
Finally, Andreeva has the physicality to hang with Parry in longer rallies.
Pick: Under 18.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Marta Kostyuk (-400) vs Elina Avanesyan (+300)
10:05 p.m. ET
Marta Kostyuk survived a tough second-round battle, defeating Elise Mertens 5-7, 6-1, 7-6(6). Kostyuk won 64% of her service points, getting broken on three occasions. The Ukrainian also won 42% of her return points, breaking four times.
Kostyuk has a 111-65 career-record on hard courts, going 22-16 last season. The Ukrainian tries to overpower her opponents, hitting a fairly big first serve and huge groundstrokes from both wings. Kostyuk positions herself well on court and is hard to push off of the baseline.
However, Kostyuk lacks variety and the ability to succeed in cat-and-mouse points. In addition, she plays with very low margins, leading to streaky matches, and stretches of error-filled play from the Ukrainian.
Elina Avanesyan upset Maria Sakkari 6-4, 6-4 to advance in Melbourne. Avanesyan won 61% of her service points, getting broken twice. In addition, the Russian won 45% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Avanesyan went just 7-12 on hard courts in 2023, but she does have a solid 34-32 career-mark on the surface. Avanesyan's game is centered around her physicality and defense. She is very fast around the court, anticipates well and consistent depth on her groundstrokes. She is a strong returner, as well. Avanesyan has a high tennis IQ, understanding what shots will put her opponents in uncomfortable positions and the right shots to hit from defensive positions.
But, Avanesyan does lack power to her game.
Avanesyan has the game to frustrate Kostyuk. The Russian does a great job of absorbing pace and counterpunching. She has the foot speed and racquet skills to defend against Kostyuk's aggressive play and force the Ukrainian to hit many more groundstrokes than she would like to.
Kostyuk should become frustrated, lowering her margins even lower than normal and leading to stretches of unforced errors where she's out of control from the baseline.
And the Russian has the return skills to blunt Kostyuk's bigger first serves and force her to play more rallies than she would like.
Kostyuk should be out of her comfort zone in this matchup.
Pick: Avanesyan +1.5 sets (+105 via PointsBet)
