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The Australian Open continues onto the second round and the tournament has been spectacular so far!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups — Anisimova vs Podoroska and Parry vs Rakhimova.
Read on for my Australian Open predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Australian Open Odds, Predictions
Amanda Anisimova (-290) vs Nadia Podoroska (+225)
7 p.m. ET
Amanda Anisimova beat an erratic Liudmilla Samsonova 6-3, 6-4 in the first round. Anisimova won 64% of her service points and was only broken twice. The American also won 47% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Anisimova, who dealt with injuries and her mental health last season, does have an impressive 85-57 record on hard as a professional. At her best, Anisimova positions herself well on the court, stepping up and cracking groundstrokes with her easy power. She can hit her spots on serve and plays high-IQ tennis. However, over the past couple of seasons, she's been much more erratic, especially when attempting to play offense. Her fitness is also shaky.
Nadia Podoroska destroyed Tamara Zidansek 6-0, 6-1 to kick off her campaign in Melbourne. Podoroska won 68% of her service points, never getting broken. In addition, the Argentine won an incredible 59% of her return points, breaking Zidansek on five occasions.
Podoroska went a solid 13-11 on hard last year, with a strong 122-82 career-record on the surface. Podoroska has a heavy, powerful forehand, which she uses to control the baseline. Podoroska's backhand can break down at times, but she's fairly solid from this wing. The Argentine is fit, fast and defends effectively. She gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes and often forces her opponents to overhit to finish points.
While Anisimova benefitted from an inconsistent, hard-hitting Samsonova, she won't have that luxury against Podoroska. The Argentine's rally tolerance and defensive skills should force Anisimova to lower her margins and the American, who has only played 14 matches since the start of last season, should crumble when forced to be the aggressor.
And Anisimova crumbled in a similar situation in Auckland earlier this season, falling 0-6, 1-6 to Bouzkova.
But, Podoroska, who was clearly comfortable in the conditions against Zidansek, has the offensive weapon in her forehand to pressure Anisimova, as well. She won't allow Anisimova to get in a rhythm dictating play and she should use her forehand to put the American on defense at times too.
Pick: Podoroska +1.5 sets (-115 via PointsBet)
Diane Parry (-120) vs Kamilla Rakhimova (+102)
7 p.m. ET
Diane Parry outmaneuvered Xinyu Wang 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 to advance to the second round. Parry won 57% of her service points, although she was broken on five occasions. The Frenchwoman also won 46% of her return points, breaking six times.
Parry is now 3-1 this season on hard courts, showcasing a much higher level on the surface than her 32-49 professional-record on the surface would suggest. Parry doesn't have overwhelming power, but she's solid from both wings, gets consistent depth and spreads the court well. The Frenchwoman also displays excellent variety, whether it be her backhand slice, touch shots or angles. Parry is also very fit, wearing down her opposition with making them uncomfortable with her shot selection.
Kamilla Rakhimova beat Emina Bektas 6-4, 6-4 in the first round. The Russian won 73% of her service points, getting broken twice. Parry also won 43% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Rakhimova has a strong 118-70 record on hard for her career, going 21-16 in 2023. The Russian is solid from the baseline, utilizing her heavy forehand to spread the court and dictate play. Rakhimova seems to be attempting to play with more pace, but decreasing her margins means increasing risk. Rakhimova's backhand is the more likely to break down and her forehand can sometimes sit up, waiting to be smacked. Her serve is also inconsistent.
Parry's solid baseline play and ability to mix things up should give Rakhimova different looks than in her match against Bektas, where the American was erratic and didn't force Rakhimova out of her comfort zone.
She has the defense to defend against Rakhimova's attempts dictate play, forcing the Russian to lower her margins. But, perhaps even more important for the Frenchwoman, her variety should give the Russian fits.
Parry should use her backhand slice, precise groundstrokes and touch shots to keep the ball out of Rakhimova's strike zone and force her to generate her own pace from uncomfortable positions on the court.
Given Rakhimova is at her best when she's redirecting pace, as opposed to generating her own, and this creates a tricky matchup for the Russian.
Pick: Parry ML (-120 via FanDuel)
