Looking for Monday Australian Open picks? Check here for our quarterfinal match previews.
The Australian Open round of 16 rolls on with more fun matches!
I’ve found value on two of Sunday's matchups —Azarenka vs Yastremska and Zheng vs Dodin.
Read on for my latest Australian Open predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Australian Open Odds, Predictions
Victoria Azarenka (-300) vs Dayana Yastremska (+230)
8:05 p.m. ET
Victoria Azarenka dismissed Jelena Ostapenko 6-1, 7-5 to advance to the round of 16. Azarenka won 64% of her service points, getting broken once. In addition, the Belarusian won 46% of her return points, breaking four times.
Azarenka, who won this tournament twice, has an impressive 429-160 career-record on hard courts. The Belarusian has started the year off strong, going 6-1 in 2024 (all on hard). Azarenka has a powerful, well-placed serve. She plays aggressively from the ground, hitting her forehand with particular venom. And she's a smart player, positioning herself well on court.
With that said, Azarenka doesn't play with a ton of margin and can lose her rally tolerance. She also has lost some foot speed and defensive abilities compared to her prime.
Dayana Yastremska defeated Emma Navarro 6-2, 2-6, 6-1 in the third round. Yastremska won 62% of her service points, getting broken three times. The Ukrainian also won 47% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
Yastremska has an 8-1 record this season (all on hard), with a strong 131-93 record on hard as a professional. The Ukrainian plays an extremely aggressive style, serving huge and showcasing an all-out attacking mindset from the baseline. Yastremska displays aggressive court positioning, hitting clean, powerful groundstrokes, and trying to get the ball onto her forehand.
However, as was the case during the second set against Navarro, Yastremska can lose control her groundstrokes for stretches. She also took a medical timeout in the second set of her last match, although it didn't seem to affect her in the third.
It's hard to oppose Yastremska in her current form. She's already ripped through six of her seven main-draw sets, rendering her opponents helpless as they watch winner whiz by.
While Azarenka just beat a similar player in Ostapenko, and has good power herself, Yastremska is playing at a higher level than Ostapenko did in that match, playing the cleaner tennis.
Azarenka's more limited speed and defensive skills should also be a problem, given Ukrainian's ability to put her opponents in defensive positions with a swing of the racquet.
Pick: Yastremska +1.5 sets (-116 via PointsBet)
Qinwen Zheng (-550) vs Oceane Dodin (+400)
Sunday, 5 a.m. ET
Qinwen Zheng survived against Yafan Wang, beating Wang 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(8). Zheng won 80% of her first serves, but just 46% of her second servers, getting broken four times. Zheng also won 38% of her return points, breaking on three occasions.
Zheng has a 112-50 professional-record on hard courts. The Chinese went an incredible 26-12 on hard last year. Zheng has a huge first serve and has powerful groundstrokes, although she prefers her forehand. Zheng on slower surfaces can become a bit passive, but she's playing aggressively on the quick Australian Open courts, trying to take time away from her opponents and impose her will.
However, Zheng has the tendency to overhit and bail out of rallies early, especially when she's feeling pressure.
Oceane Dodin defeated Clara Burel 6-2, 6-4 to advance in Melbourne. Dodin won 68% of her first serves and 56% of her second serves, getting broken twice. In addition, the Frenchwoman won 52% of her return points, breaking five times.
Dodin has a strong 277-146 mark on hard courts for her career. Her first serve is huge and she hits aggressively from the baseline, punishing anything short in the court. The Frenchwoman's forehand is particularly potent. It's hard to push Dodin off of the baseline, as she imposes her with her style of play.
With that said, Dodin's rally tolerance is shaky,with periods of unforced errors.
Dodin hasn't dropped more than four games in a set so far this tournament, winning over two-thirds of her first serves in every match and being broken a combined four times across the three matches.
The Frenchwoman has ripped through her draw, serving huge and playing superb power tennis. And Dodin has limited her unforced errors enough that it hasn't hindered her level.
Zheng has played nervous tennis this tournament. While she's played offensive tennis well at points, she's had streaks of bad errors and poor decision-making on court.
With No. 1 seed Swiatek losing and the draw opening up, against an on-fire opponent that the Chinese "should beat," look for this one to stay close.
Pick: Dodin +5.5 games (-140 via PointsBet)
