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The Australian Open third round continues with another slate of amazing matches!
I’ve found value on two of Friday's matchups —Emma Navarro vs Dayana Yastremska and Clara Burel vs Ocean Dodin.
Read on for my 2024 best bets today in my latest Australian Open match previews & picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Australian Open Odds, Picks
Emma Navarro (-220) vs Dayana Yastremska (+175)
7 p.m. ET
Emma Navarro defeated Elisabetta Cocciaretto 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the second round. Navarro won 64% of her service points, getting broken on three occasions. The American also won 46% of her return points, breaking five times.
Navarro has a 56-40 career-record on hard courts, with a 10-1 hard-court mark so far this season, including a WTA title in Hobart. Navarro's heavy, well-placed forehand controls the baseline and positions herself well. The American's backhand has become more solid in recent months too. Navarro spreads the court well, showcasing a high tennis IQ, and her touch is outstanding.
However, her forehand can sit up in the court, she lacks overwhelming power and she's mediocre on defense.
Dayana Yastremska beat Varvara Gracheva 6-3, 6-2 to advance to the third round after having to qualify for this tournament. Yastremska won 75% of her service points, failing to get broken. In addition, the Ukrainian won 45% of her return points, breaking on three occasions.
Yastremska is now 130-93 on hard courts as a professional, having gone 7-1 in 2o24 on the surface. Yastremska has a strong first serve, having been broken just once in the main draw so far. She has overwhelming power from the ground too, hitting clean, big groundstrokes from both wings and controlling the baseline. The Ukrainian is particularly dangerous when getting forehands to crush, as her backhand wing is weaker.
Although less-so this tournament, there are times when Yastremska loses control of her low-margin groundstrokes.
Navarro has played lots of tennis in 2024, with her title in Hobart and semifinal in Auckland. And the three-setters are starting to pile up, playing four in her last five matches.
Yastremska has caught fire this tournament, serving well and losing just eight games in her last two matches combined. The Ukrainian's ball striking is absurd and she's dominating from the baseline.
Navarro is at her best when directing play with her forehand and being the proactive player. However, Yastremska has another level of power to her game and the American should be forced into defensive, reactive tennis, where she struggles more.
Yastremska should take Navarro out of her comfort zone here.
Pick: Yastremska +3.5 games (-110 via PointsBet)
Clara Burel (-350) vs Oceane Dodin (+260)
8:15 p.m. ET
Clara Burel upset Jessica Pegula 6-4, 6-2 in the second round. Burel won 67% of her service points, getting broken twice. The Frenchwoman also won 49% of her return points, breaking four times.
Burel is an impressive 78-44 for her career on hard, going 4-2 so far in 2023 on hard. Burel doesn't have any standout qualities to her game, but is a solid, well-rounded player. She hits her spots on serve, hit with power when given an opening and moves well. She decently well, although it's not a particular strength, and constructs points effectively. Burel hits with good variety too.
However, the Frenchwoman can be vulnerable on serve and doesn't have overwhelming power. And while Burel is fairly consistent, she has stretches of unforced errors.
Oceane Dodin defeated Martina Trevisan 6-4, 6-4 to advance in Melbourne. Dodin won 63% of her service points, but 83% of her first serves, getting broken twice. In addition, the Frenchwoman won 46% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Dodin is 4-1 this season on hard courts, with a 276-146 career-record on the surface. The Frenchwoman has won over 80% of her service points in both of her Australian Open matches so far, dominating with her first serve. She plays aggressively behind that serve, taking the initiative from both wings. Dodin takes an aggressive approach to court positioning and is clearly enjoying these quick conditions.
However, at times, Dodin loses control of her rally tolerance due to her low-margin play style.
While Pegula and Burel's first-round opponent, Aleksandra Krunic, both like to spread the court and lack power, this is a completely different ball game.
Dodin should, at points, take the racquet out of Burel's hands and force her on defense than she would like.
Burel will likely try to press and match Dodin's power at points, leading to plenty of unforced errors.
And Burel's defense and counterpunching aren't quite strong enough for her to escape unblemished against a confident big-ball striker in quick conditions.
Pick: Dodin +1.5 sets (-115 via BetMGM)
