The Citi Open is underway and the quality of tennis has been spectacular so far!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday’s matchups — Cirstea vs Martic and Kalinina vs Brady.
Read on for my WTA Washington picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Citi Open Odds, Picks
Sorana Cirstea (-120) vs Petra Martic (-110)
12 p.m. ET
Sorana Cirstea most recently played at Wimbledon, falling 2-6, 2-6 to Beatriz Haddad Maia in the third round. Cirstea won only 48% of her service points in the match, getting broken on five occasions. The Romanian did win 56% of her second-serve returns, although she broke just once.
Cirstea has a 13-8 record on hard this season, including a trip to the Miami semifinals, with a solid 296-234 professional-record on the surface. She doesn't do anything special, but Cirstea has decent power from the ground, especially on her forehand side, and can successfully hit into targets. She anticipates well, absorbing pace without getting pushed too far behind the baseline. And in baseline exchanges, the Romanian hits with consistent depth.
Petra Martic last played at Wimbledon as well, losing a third-round encounter against Iga Swiatek 2-6, 5-7. Martic won just 47% of her service points, getting broken five times. On return, the Croat won 56% of her second-serve return opportunities, breaking twice.
Matric is just 7-6 on hard this year, with a fairly steady 209-176 record on the surface for her career. Martic is known for her heavy forehand, which she manipulates around the court well, and her slice backhand, which cuts low to the court. With that said, Martic is vulnerable on her backhand wing and her forehand can hang up in the air at times, waiting to be smacked.
Cirstea has the edge in this matchup. She's steadier from the baseline and her forehand cuts through the court better than Martic's does. The Romanian is more comfortable playing offense on hard courts compared to Martic.
She also has the patience and rally tolerance to handle Martic's backhand slice. In addition, Martic's topspin backhand should be the worst shot on the court. Cirstea has the direction on her groundstrokes to keep the ball on Martic's backhand side.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, while Cirstea's overall Elo is just 23 points higher than Martic's, her hard-court Elo is 66.2 points above the Croat's.
Pick: Cirstea ML (-120 via BetMGM)
Anhelina Kalinina (-230) vs Jennifer Brady (+175)
2 p.m. ET
Anhelina Kalinina last played at Wimbledon, losing 2-6, 6-4, 6-7(7) in the second round to Bianca Andreescu. Despite winning 73% of her first serves, Kalinina won just 38% of her second serves and was broken five times. The Ukrainian did win 52% of her second-serve returns and broke on four occasions.
Kalinina has a solid 10-8 hard-court record in 2023, with a more-impressive 154-97 record on the surface as a professional. Kalinina's court coverage, anticipation and counterpunching abilities are world-class. She is fit, has a high rally tolerance and places her groundstrokes well around the court, particularly from her backhand wing. The Ukrainian can lack some power at times, however.
Jennifer Brady most recently competed in the Granby $100k ITF event, falling 4-6, 6-7(2) to Himeno Sakatsume in the second round. Brady was broken five times in 11 service games against Sakatsume. On return, the American broke on four occasions. She struggled with her movement and consistency throughout this match.
Brady, a former Australian Open finalist, is just coming back to tour after knee and foot ailments wrecked havoc on her health. The American's first tournament of the season was in Granby, although she has a strong 195-111 career-record on hard. At her best, Brady has a huge first serve and dictates play behind her heavy, well-placed forehand.
However, since returning from injury, Brady has looked sluggish out there, struggling to find her range from the baseline and looking slow-footed during rallies.
Kalinina is a tough matchup for Brady so early in her comeback. She is very fit and should be able to handle the hot conditions better than an undercooked Brady. She should be able to extend rallies, forcing Brady to lower her margins and overhit, while physically wearing the American down in the process.
The Ukrainian also has the speed, consistency and shot-making to absorb the pace that Brady should send her way and effectively counterpunch.
In addition, Kalinina has the placement on her groundstrokes to get the ball onto Brady's weaker backhand wing and should dominate in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges.
Pick: Kalinina -3.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
