Navarro vs Paolini Odds
| Navarro Odds | -190 |
| Paolini Odds | +150 |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-125 / -110) |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 10:30 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via BetMGM. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here. | |
Emma Navarro took care of Coco Gauff in a very impressive 6-4, 6-3 victory to reach the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
Now, Navarro will battle Jasmine Paolini, who was very fortunate that Madison Keys retired at 5-5 in the third after blowing a double-break lead in their Wimbledon matchup.
Read on for my full Navarro – Paolini pick and Navarro – Paolini preview.
Navarro Continues to Impress
Navarro showcased a high level of tennis in her win over Gauff. The American won 64% of her service points and was only broken once. She also won 54% of her second-serve returns and broke on three occasions.
While Gauff did have 25 unforced errors, she felt as if she had to go for more on her groundstrokes given Navarro's excellent rally tolerance, anticipation and movement.
Navarro has an amazing 40-15 record overall this season, with her ranking improving from World No. 32 at the end of last year to World No. 14 currently in the WTA live rankings. On grass, the American is 7-2 in 2024 and 14-5 as a professional on the surface.
Looking at Navarro's game on paper, one might think that, with her (relative) lack of power and heavy forehand, that she would struggle on grass. This is far from the case.
Navarro's placement around the court is superb from both wings, but particularly this is true on her forehand. She's able to put the ball in uncomfortable positions for her opponents while maintaining her rally tolerance. And the 23-year old gets excellent depth.
In addition, Navarro has a high tennis IQ. She understands shot selection and how to build points, both on-and-off of grass, and the American's variety contributes to this, as well. Whether it's slices, touch shots, angles or volleys, Navarro has all of these different shots in her tool kit, while still maintaining the discipline to use them when necessary.
And while Navarro doesn't have a massive serve, she's smart in terms of the location and type of serve that she hits.
Finally, the Navarro backhand can be the weakness in her game, yet she's improving from this wing with every match.
That's the thing about Navarro, she just keeps getting better and better.
Paolini's Great Year Continues With Some Fortune
Paolini has had a great season, but it would be inaccurate to state that she wasn't extraordinarily lucky in her win over Keys. To have her opponent pull up injured and eventually retire when the Italian was on the ropes was very fortunate.
And, while Paolini won 49% of her return points and broke Keys' big serve on seven occasions, her own service numbers were suspect. The 28-year old won just 56% of her service points and was broken six times.
This isn't to take away from Paolini's year. This year's Roland Garros finalist has an amazing 27-11 overall record in 2024, including a 6-1 mark on grass this season. The Italian started the year 6-13 on grass and is now 12-14 on the surface.
The World No. 7 has added more power to her ground game, especially her forehand, which allows her be proactive, as opposed to reactive, on grass. She can now dictate play better than before.
And, while Paolini's serve is far from elite, she does hit her spots more often than she has in the past.
Even so, Paolini's variety isn't a strength, her backhand can break down under pressure and while the Italian is pushing forward when she can, she still doesn't look totally comfortable at the net.
Navarro vs Paolini Pick
This is a fascinating matchup between two players on the rise. While head-to-head certainly isn't everything, it is worth noting that Navarro and Paolini have played three times in the past year on hard courts, with Navarro winning six of the seven sets.
Now they're on grass, a surface that is more detrimental to the Italian"s game than the American's.
Navarro looks more comfortable constructing points and playing within herself on the surface. Whereas, Paolini seems to want to play more aggressively and attack more, but she looks uncomfortable doing so and can sometimes overplay.
Paolini is likely going to be the aggressor in this matchup, but between Navarro's movement, consistency, variety and placement, it's hard not to see Paolini overcooking her groundstrokes and pressing during rallies.
The American's point construction placement should also get the ball onto Paolini's backhand wing. And Paolini's backhand should be the worst shot on the court.
Finally, while Paolini has the higher overall Elo rating, Navarro's grass-court Elo is 133.3 points above the Italian's.
Pick: Navarro -3.5 games (+100)
