Just one day in, the 2023 French Open has been incredible — and the fun continues on Monday!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups on the women's side — Elina Svitolina vs. Martina Trevisan and Petra Kvitova vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto.
Read on for my Roland Garros picks and expert predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA French Open Odds, Picks
Elina Svitolina (-110) vs Martina Trevisan (-110)
8:15 a.m. ET
Elina Svitolina won her most recent tournament in Strasbourg (clay), beating Anna Blinkova 6-2, 6-3 in the final. Svitolina won just 52% of her service points and was broken three times, but the Ukrainian won 62% of her return points and broke on seven occasions.
Despite winning Strasbourg, Svitolina is just 8-6 on clay this season. For her career though, the Ukrainian has a strong 120-66 record on the surface. Since returning from her maternity break, Svitolina has largely struggled when ramping up the pace on her groundstrokes, especially her forehand, and she's more erratic than before. When Svitolina is at her best, she is a wall from the baseline and effectively hits into targets.
Martina Trevisan retired after losing the first set of her Rabat (clay) quarterfinal to Julia Grabher this past week. While Trevisan won 75% of her first serves, she won just 27% of her second serves and was broken twice. The Italian won 36% of her return points and only broke once.
Trevisan, a Roland Garros semifinalist last year, is just 4-4 on clay this year. As a professional, Trevisan has an impressive 229-107 record on the dirt. Trevisan's game is centered around her heavy lefty forehand. She places her backhand well, although that wing can occasionally break down. She is a physical player and constructs points at a high level on clay, doing an excellent job of hiding her backhand.
Svitolina has only played seven tournaments since returning to tour. Since coming back, only other time has she played four matches in a tournament and played the following week — she lost in her first match in Rome.
Trevisan is physical and should be able to extend rallies, forcing Svitolina to feel that Strasbourg run. With her consistency, depth and placement, Trevisan could make it difficult for Svitolina to effectively attack.
The Italian should pepper Svitolina's backhand, locking her into that corner. When Svitolina does get to hit forehands, I expect her to overhit from that wing as tries to end points quickly.
Trevisan has better variety than Svitolina and should keep the Ukrainian out of her comfort zone, which differs from playing a more straight-forward opponent like Blinkova.
Pick: Trevisan ML (-110 via PointsBet)
Petra Kvitova (-125) vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto (+104)
10:15 a.m. ET
Petra Kvitova last played in Madrid (altitude clay), where she lost her first match, 6-7(9), 1-6 to Jule Niemeier. Kvitova won just 48% of her service points and was broken six times. While the Czech won 54% of second-serve returns, she won just 26% of her first-serve returns.
It's important to note that Kvitova withdrew from Rome due to her right foot.
Kvitova, who won Miami (hard) right before the clay swing, has a strong 137-61 record on dirt as a professional. But this is not the Kvitova of old, not to mention she has played just one match on clay this year. Her rally tolerance is not what it once was, which especially hurts her on clay. As was the case in Madrid, Kvitova doesn't get quite as much on her big serve, which exposes her lack of baseline rally tolerance.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto recently fell 4-6, 4-6 in the second round to Anastasia Potapova in the second round at Rome (clay). Cocciaretto won just 48% of her service points and was broken six times. However, the Italian won 49% of her return points and broke on four occasions.
Cocciaretto is 7-2 on clay this season, with an (altitude clay) WTA $125k title in San Luis Potosi. She also has an impressive 104-50 career record on dirt. The Italian doesn't have any big weapons, but gets consistent depth from both wings. She can dictate at times from the baseline with a heavy, well-placed forehand. Cocciaretto constructs clay points well, and she is fast and effectively absorbs pace.
Kvitova's Miami title is likely impacting her odds in this match. It's important to reiterate she has played one clay match this season, did not play well in it.
Cocciaretto should be able to extend rallies and test Kvitova's foot. The Italian matches up well against even a healthy Kvitova on clay. She should absorb Kvitova's pace and effectively counterpunch.
Kvitova's rally tolerance will be under fire, whether she's healthy or not.
Pick: Cocciaretto ML (+104 via DraftKings)
