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The French Open quarterfinals are here and I anticipate that we'll have some intriguing matches on the Tuesday slate.
I’ve found value on each of Tuesday's women’s matchups — Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina.
Read on for my French Open picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
French Open Odds & Picks
Karolina Muchova (-170) vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+138)
5 a.m. ET
Karolina Muchova defeated Elina Avanesyan 6-4, 6-3 to advance in Paris. Muchova won just 56% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. The Czech won 53% of her return points, breaking seven times.
Muchova has an 8-2 record on clay this season, with a strong 108-55 career-record on the surface. While the Czech's game is better on quicker surfaces, she's clearly capable on the dirt. Muchova has a well-placed serve and dictates with her well-placed forehand. Muchova wants to be aggressive from both wings, although her backhand is more prone to breaking down. And Muchova's variety, including her backhand slice, net play, and touch, are also superb.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova came back to beat Elise Mertens 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-3 in the fourth round. Pavlyuchenkova hit eight double faults and only won 54% of her service points, getting broken six times. But, the Russian did win 49% of her return points and broke on seven occasions. As the match went on, Pavlyuchenkova's ball striking improved and she hit 50 winners versus 48 unforced errors.
Pavlyuchenkova, a former Roland Garros finalist, is now 9-4 on clay in 2023 since returning from a knee injury. As a professional, Pavlyuchenkova has a solid 106-77 record on the dirt. The Russian plays with controlled aggression from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. She hits clean groundstrokes into precise targets. But, Pavlyuchenkova's rally tolerance is suspect and she's not the best mover.
Muchova's last two opponents, Avanesyan and Irina-Camelia Begu, did not have the weapons to trouble Muchova, instead allowing the Czech to comfortably spread the court, utilize her variety, and wait to strike. Muchova struggled more in the first two rounds, against Maria Sakkari and Nadia Podoroska, two players who had more firepower on their forehands.
Pavlyuchenkova won't allow Muchova nearly as many opportunities to dictate and should rush the Czech. Additionally, it's hard to push Pavlyuchenkova off of the baseline.
Muchova, in various moments this tournament, seemed to lose focus and let her opponents back in. This won't be acceptable against the Russian.
Pick: Pavlyuchenkova +3.5 games (-135 via PointsBet)
Aryna Sabalenka (-475) vs Elina Svitolina (+350)
6:30 a.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka survived a tough round of 16 match, beating Sloane Stephens 7-6(5), 6-4. Sabalenka won just 46% of her second serves, but did win 77% of her first serves, getting broken on three occasions. The Belarusian won 56% of her first serve returns and broke four times. It was a bit concerning that Sabalenka hit 40 unforced errors in just two sets.
Sabalenka won Madrid and has a 13-2 record on clay this season. However, nine of those victories came in quicker conditions (altitude or indoor), which help accentuate Sabalenka's firepower. The Belarusian can struggle to hit through slower clay, but still holds a 67-42 professional mark. Sabalenka's first serve and groundstrokes overwhelm her opponents with pace. However, as was shown against Stephens, she loses patience on clay and her rally tolerance can be suspect.
Elina Svitolina won a hard-fought 6-4, 7-6(5) match over Daria Kasaktina to advance. Svitolina won just 51% of her service points and was broken five times. But, the Ukrainian won 51% of her return points, breaking on six occasions.
Svitolina, who won WTA Strasbourg last month, has an 11-6 record on clay this year. For her career, Svitolina is an impressive 127-66 on the dirt. Svitolina is quick, absorbs pace well and can counterpunch effectively. But, the Ukrainian is not afraid to step up and play offense when the opportunity presents itself, especially with her backhand. While Svitolina's serve is mediocre and her variety is lacking, she can become a wall from the baseline.
Sabalenka played hit-or-miss tennis against Stephens. While she was aggressive, she didn't play with controlled aggression. Sabalenka was wild at times from the baseline, alternating between massive winners and heinous unforced errors. She also lacked patience on court, which is partially why she lost to Sofia Kenin in Rome.
Svitolina, like Kenin and Stephens, can keep points alive, absorb Sabalenka's pace and successfully counterpunch. And while Stephens' intensity and footwork were shaky, the Ukrainian's footwork and intensity won't waver.
The Ukrainian also has more reliable offense compared to Stephens. Svitolina should enjoy the cross-court backhand-to-backhand rallies in this one, attacking Sabalenka's weaker wing. The Belarusian will likely become frustrated and press on her groundstrokes.
Pick: Svitolina +5.5 games (-135 via PointsBet)
