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The third round of Roland Garros continues on with more fascinating matchups to come!
I’ve found value on two of Saturday's women’s matchups — Rybakina vs Sorribes Tormo and Schmiedlova vs Day.
Read on for my French Open picks and expert predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA French Open Odds, Picks
Elena Rybakina (-500) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo (+360)
5:45 a.m. ET
Elena Rybakina defeated Linda Noskova 6-3, 6-3 to advance to the third round. Rybakina won 79% of her first serves, won 69% of her service points overall and wasn't broken. The Kazakh also won 55% of her second-serve returns, generating 10 break points and breaking on three occasions.
Rybakina, who won Rome, is now an impressive 11-2 on clay this year. For her career, the Kazakh's clay-court record is an incredible 76-35. Rybakina's serve and powerful groundstrokes are world-class. She's able to hit with overwhelming power.
But, despite her clay-record I don't think the dirt suits her game very well. Clay helps to zap the pace out of Rybakina's serve and groundstrokes, extending rallies and turning quick points into physical ones. The Kazakh's rally tolerance is not a strength, and her movement, so important on clay, is suspect.
Sara Sorribes Tormo is rounding back into form, beating Petra Martic 6-4, 6-1. Sorribes Tormo won just 48% of her service points and was broken four times. But the Spaniard won a ridiculous 69% of her return points, breaking serve on eight occasions.
Sorribes Tormo, who returned from injury in April, is now 12-5 on clay this season. Sorribes Tormo has a strong 235-117 career-record on the dirt. Sorribes Tormo lacks power but is one of the fittest and grittiest players on tour. The Spaniard is quick around the court, very consistent, absorbs pace effectively and is a high-level counter-puncher. Sorribes Tormo's clay tennis IQ is very high and her variety is excellent.
This is a massive contrast in styles, but Sorribes Tormo has the game to give Rybakina fits. Sorribes Tormo should be able to get a lot of Rybakina's big serves back into play, extending rallies. This should test Rybakina's mediocre rally tolerance.
And Sorribes Tormo, with the placement of her groundstrokes and her clay-court tennis IQ, should pepper Rybakina's backhand wing, with the Kazakh pressing to break this pattern.
The Spaniard's variety should make Rybakina uncomfortable and should force the six-foot Kazakh to hit plenty of groundstrokes out of her strike zone.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo +5.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (-115) vs Kayla Day (-106)
8 a.m. ET
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova defeated Aliona Bolsova 6-3, 6-4 to advance in Paris. Schmiedlova won 58% of her service points and saved 9-of-12 break points. The Slovak won 52% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
Schmiedlova, who upset Veronika Kudermetova in the first round, is now 6-4 on clay this season. For her career, Schmiedlova is a strong 199-109 on the dirt. The Slovak doesn't have much power, but she is very tough to break down from the baseline.
Schmiedlova relies on her heavy forehand, hitting it with consistency and fantastic placement. She also places her backhand well, although that wing is more prone to breaking down. Schmiedlova's clay-court tennis IQ is high and has excellent variety.
Kayla Day upset Madison Keys 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 to reach the third round of Roland Garros. Day won just 52% of her service points and was broken seven times. The American won 56% of her return points, however, breaking on nine occasions.
Day, who qualified for Roland Garros, is now 18-6 on clay in 2023 with an ITF $100k title in Bonita Springs. As a professional, the American is a solid 72-46 on the surface. Day doesn't have much power, but she anticipates well and can use her heavy, lefty forehand to spread the court and dictate play.
Her backhand, however, is prone to breaking down and her serve is fairly weak. In addition, the American's forehand can become too loopy and her rally tolerance will sometimes dip.
Day is getting way too much respect here. Her backhand is still a massive weakness, her consistency can falter and she doesn't generate much power on her forehand.
Schmiedlova should be able to use her clay point construction to keep the ball on Day's backhand wing. She will likely be all over Day's serve and has the defensive skills and consistency to neutralize the American's baseline play.
The Slovak's variety should also keep the ball out of Day's strike zone, exacerbating the American's hot and cold baseline play.
Pick: Schmiedlova ML (-115 via PointsBet)
