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The third round of Roland Garros has been terrific and I can't wait to see what Saturday brings!
I’ve found value on two of Friday’s women’s matchups — Coco Gauff vs. Mirra Andreeva and Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova.
Read on for my French Open expert picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA French Open Odds, Picks
Coco Gauff (-126) vs Mirra Andreeva (+106)
7 a.m. ET
Coco Gauff comfortably defeated Julia Grabher 6-2, 6-3. Gauff had an uneven serving performance, winning 66% of her first serves, 42% of her second serves and was broken on three occasions. The American did win 64% of her return points, however, breaking six times. Grabher's backhand was an absolute disaster in this match.
Gauff is now 5-3 this season on clay. But, last year's French Open finalist has an impressive 45-20 career mark on the dirt. Gauff has a big first serve and can dictate with her backhand. She's quick, anticipates well and is strong at the net. Also, the clay gives her more time to set up on her forehand.
However, Gauff's forehand is still a massive weakness. Opponents can rush her from that wing and they often land short in the court, or out of the court entirely. The American is also playing too defensively from the baseline.
16 year-old Mirra Andreeva continues to impress and dominated Diane Parry 6-1, 6-2. Andreeva won 67% of her service points and was only broken once. The Russian also won 56% of her return points, including 65% on Gauff's second serve, breaking on five occasions.
Andreeva, who qualified for Roland Garros without losing a set, is an incredible 22-2 this year on the dirt. She's also 40-6 in her career on clay. Andreeva is a complete player. She defends well, has excellent variety and gets both precision and consistency on her groundstrokes. The Russian also has easy power, which allows her to hit through her opposition.
Andreeva won't make as many rushed errors as Rebeka Masarova did against Gauff and doesn't have a glaring weakness for the American to exploit.
Gauff won't get away with winning under 45% of her second serves, as she did against Grabher. Andreeva has won at least 50% of her second-serve returns in all five (including qualifying) of her matches in Paris.
Andreeva has the consistent depth and physicality to hang with Gauff in longer rallies. The Russian also has the power to rush Gauff's forehand, and the controlled aggression to put away the short balls that she will produce from Gauff's forehand.
Pick: Andreeva Moneyline (+106 via FanDuel)
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-125) vs Ekaterina Alexandrova (+102)
7 a.m. ET
Beatriz Haddad Maia survived a tough test and beat Diana Shnaider 6-2, 5-7, 6-4. Haddad Maia was mediocre on serve, winning 67% of her first serves, but just 44% of her second serves and getting broken five times. Haddad Maia did win 64% of her second-serve returns and broke on seven occasions.
Haddad Maia improved her clay-court record in 2023 to 8-4. The Brazilian is now a strong 204-102 on the dirt in her career. While Haddad Maia typically hits her spots with her first serve, her game is built around her heavy, lefty forehand.
Haddad Maia understands clay tactics, knows when to move forward and is strong at the net.
Ekaterina Alexandrova easily dismissed Anna-Lena Friedsam 6-2, 6-0 to advance in Paris. Alexandrova won 70% of her first serves and was only broken once. The Russian also won 64% of her return points and broke on six occasions.
Alexandrova has a season record of 6-4 on clay, with a solid 165-96 mark as a professional. The Russian has a big first serve and is aggressive from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. However, clay minimizes the effectiveness of Alxandrova's serve and she won't be able to overpower Haddad Maia. Alexandrova's backhand is also a liability on any surface.
Haddad Maia does a great job maintaining control of the baseline and won't allow Alexandrova to drag her around the court. Her lefty forehand also goes into Alexandrova's weakness.
And, when Alexandrova coughs up short balls with her backhand, Haddad Maia should move forward and utilize her excellent net play.
Haddad Maia's rally tolerance is better than Alexandrova's and she constructs points in a way that she should be able to hide her backhand. In addition, the Brazilian is simply more comfortable on the surface.
Pick: Haddad Maia Moneyline (-125 via PointsBet)
