The first round of Roland Garros was a blast and there's more exciting matchups to come in round two!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's women's matchups — Magdalena Frech vs Kamilla Rakhimova and Clara Tauson vs Leylah Fernandez.
Read on for my Roland Garros picks and expert predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA French Open Odds, Picks
Magdalena Frech (-150) vs Kamilla Rakhimova (+122)
9:30 a.m. ET
Magdalena Frech easily beat Shuai Zhang 6-1, 6-1 to kick off her Roland Garros campaign. Frech won 72% of her service points, getting broken just once. The Pole also won 69% of her return points and broke six times in seven return games. It must be said, though, that Zhang's level was extraordinarily poor in this match and she's mentally in poor shape.
Frech has an impressive 10-4 record on clay this season, with a solid 152-100 clay record as a professional. Frech is consistent and places her shots well. The Pole spreads the court effectively and has excellent variety, different angles and slices well. Frech struggles to finish her opponents off from the baseline, however. Her serve is weak as well, frequently allowing opponents to tee off during return games.
Kamilla Rakhimova started strong at the French Open, defeating Sara Bejlek 6-0, 6-3 in the first round. While Rakhimova won just 44% of her second serves, she won 57% of her service points overall and was broken just twice. The Russian was dominant on return, winning 67% of her return points, including 64% on her first-serve return, breaking six times.
Rakhimova is a solid 10-8 on the year, and 58-41 for her career on clay. The Russian is quick, anticipates well and is very consistent. She absorbs pace and counter-punches effectively, and while Rakhimova has limited power, she can dictate at times with her forehand and hit into the openings that she creates for herself.
I'm surprised by this line. Rakhimova can match Frech's consistency from the baseline and is more-than-willing to engage in long, physical rallies.
Rakhimova's foot speed, anticipation and defensive skills should also her to handle the variety that Frech is sending her way. She also has more power from the baseline, so she should have the easier time finishing off points.
The Russian was better than Bejlek in all facets of the game and I fail to see where Frech can hurt her here.
Pick: Rakhimova +2.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
Clara Tauson (-110) vs Leylah Fernandez (-110)
11 a.m. ET
Clara Tauson qualified for Roland Garros and defeated Aliaksandra Sasnovich 6-2, 6-0 in the first round. Tauson won 64% of her service points, including 63% on her second serve – getting broken just once. The Dane also won 62% of her return points, breaking six times in seven return games.
Tauson is now an impressive 11-3 on clay in 2023, with a 52-23 career-record on the dirt. The Dane has the power to hit through the surface. But, she also has the rally tolerance, patience and control to wait for the right opportunity to pull the trigger. Tauson's forehand is particularly potent, allowing her to dictate baseline play. And, while Tauson lacks experience on clay, she's rapidly improving on the surface.
Leylah Fernandez beat Magda Linette 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 to advance in Paris. Fernandez won 62% of her service points and was broken three times. She will want to clean up on her nine double faults. The Canadian also won 55% of her second-serve returns and generated 13 break points, but only converted three of these opportunities.
Fernandez is just 5-5 on clay this season, but she does have a solid 41-32 professional-record on the dirt. Fernandez can frequently use her lefty forehand to control the baseline. The Canadian doesn't have overwhelming power, but she places the ball well and spreads the court nicely. Her backhand also breaks down at times and while her serve is placed well, it can sometimes sit up in the box.
Tauson is playing much better clay-court tennis this season and is in form. The Dane has a better serve and she is an elite ball striker, with a higher level of controlled aggression than Fernandez.
The Canadian's backhand should be the weakest shot on the court and Tauson, with her high tennis IQ, should be able to effectively target this wing. Fernandez shouldn't have enough firepower from the ground to push Tauson off of the baseline.
While Fernandez will often likely go forehand cross-court into Tauson's backhand, that wing has held up well for the Dane this clay season.
Pick: Tauson ML (-110 via FanDuel)
