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The round of 16 at the French Open continues on and the Monday's matches are spectacular!
In this piece I'll be looking into two of Monday's women’s matchups — Iga Swiatek vs Lesia Tsurenko and Coco Gauff vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova.
Read on for my French Open expert picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
French Open Expert Picks
Iga Swiatek (-5000) vs Lesia Tsurenko (+1300)
8:30 a.m. ET
Iga Swiatek annihilated Xinyu Wang 6-0, 6-0 to reach the round of 16. Swiatek won 86% of her first serves and didn't face a break point. The Pole won an incredible 76% of her return points, breaking in all six return games. Wang didn't have a single game point.
While Swiatek had a knee injury concern, those worries have evaporated, as she has lost eight games in her first three matches. Swiatek is 15-2 this season on clay and an astonishing 107-16 as a professional. The Pole has a big, well-placed serve and a heavy, pinpoint-accurate forehand. Swiatek can play with controlled aggression from both wings and constructs points beautifully. She's also quick around the court.
Lesia Tsurenko dominated a wayward Bianca Andreescu 6-1, 6-1. Tsurenko won 64% of her service points and was only broken once. The Ukrainian also won 64% of her return points, breaking six times.
Tsurenko is now 8-3 on clay in 2023, with a solid 165-111 mark for her career. Tsurenko gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes and places them well. And while she can add power to her groundstrokes at times – both on serve and from the baseline – Tsurenko often looks underpowered against higher-level opposition.
These two have played twice (both on slow clay) and Tsurenko has won four games combined. The two-time Roland Garros champion has a better serve, forehand, backhand, court coverage and even net play compared to the Ukrainian.
Swiatek should be in complete control of the baseline, constructing points to keep the ball on her forehand wing. And Tsurenko, despite having fairly good defensive and counter-punching skills, should struggle to handle the elite weight-of-shot, placement and power coming her way. Swiatek's controlled aggression is on another level on clay compared to the rest of the WTA Tour.
The world No. 1 typically struggles against more powerful opponents, such as Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, who can rush and hit through her from the baseline. Tsurenko doesn't have nearly enough power to do so. Swiatek should neutralize points when Tsurenko is in control and turn them around.
Pick: Under 16.5 games (-135 via PointsBet)
Coco Gauff (-720) vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (+500)
8:30 a.m. ET
Coco Gauff came back to defeat Mirra Andreeva 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-1 to reach the fourth round. Gauff won 67% of her service points, but was broken three times. On return, the American won 66% of her second-serve returns and broke on eight occasions. Gauff also won 19-of-25 points at the net.
Gauff is now 6-3 this season on clay, with an impressive 46-20 career-record on the dirt. She has a strong first serve and dictates baseline points with her backhand. She is quick and consistent, and her net play is terrific.
But, Gauff's forehand is still a massive liability. Opponents can produce plenty of short balls that opponents from that wing, although she will spray some errors, as well. The clay does help give the American more time on her forehand, making it more difficult for opponents to rush her.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova dismissed Kayla Day 6-1, 6-3 in the third round. Despite winning 48% of her second serves, Schmiedlova won 71% of her first serves and was only broken once. The Slovak won 58% of her return points, breaking five times.
Schmiedlova improved her record on clay this year to 7-4. For her career, the Slovak has a strong 200-109 mark on the dirt. She gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes and is fast. On clay, she constructs points in a way that emphasizes her heavy forehand, which she uses to spread the court and dictate play.
While Schmiedlova doesn't have overwhelming power, she can hit with power into targets, particularly with her forehand. However, the Slovak's backhand can be erratic at times.
The total of 19.5 and Gauff being a 5.5-game favorite both seem right. The American has the consistency to stick with Schmiedlova in rallies, but also the offensive game to eventually take over.
However, with the way Schmiedlova is hitting her forehand, the Slovak can gain the edge in forehand-to-forehand exchanges, punishing Gauff when she leaves a forehand short. And, Gauff has also dropped two first sets this tournament with erratic play.
It's tough to figure Gauff out in this tournament.
Pick: PASS
