The first round of the French Open is concluding but there are plenty of exciting matches still on tap!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups —Kalinina vs Parry and Rus vs Grabher.
Read on for my 2023 French Open expert picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing French Open matches.
WTA French Open Odds, Picks
Anhelina Kalinina (-350) vs Diane Parry (+240)
5:15 a.m. ET
Anhelina Kalinina last played in Rome, where she made the final, but retired down 4-6, 0-1 to Elena Rybakina. Kalinina won 79% of her first serves, but just 32% of her second serves, getting broken twice. On return, the Ukrainian won 62% of her second-serve returns, but only 9% of her first-serve returns, breaking just once. Kalinina's health is a question mark as Roland Garros arrives.
She is 5-3 this year on clay, with an impressive 170-68 career-record on the surface. While Kalinina doesn't have much power, she can hit into targets, particularly with her backhand down the line. The Ukrainian spreads the court well and has consistent depth. She has a high tennis IQ and is quick around the court too.
However, there are times when Kalinina goes on mental walkabouts during matches.
Diane Parry received a walkover from Caty McNally to win the Paris WTA $125k title. In the semifinals, however, Parry destroyed Varvara Gracheva 6-0, 6-2 in a dominant performance. The Frenchwoman dropped just one set in her four matches in Paris.
Parry's form improved in Paris, with her clay record on the season now at 8-6. Parry is a strong 109-69 on clay as a professional. The Frenchwoman dictates play from the baseline with her forehand, hitting with controlled aggression from that wing. She has a dynamic backhand that she is able to manipulate around the court. Her variety is fantastic, as Parry effectively utilizes slices, angles and has terrific touch.
She played excellent tennis in her most recent tournament in Paris, balancing offense and defense well while hitting her targets. Parry beat some some tough opposition too in Gracheva and Linda Noskova, losing just nine games across those two matches.
Kalinina found her form in Rome, but we don't know her injury history and it seemed like that stopped her momentum completely. The Ukrainian's level can vary over the course of a match and Parry, with the support of the French crowd, is certainly good enough to take advantage.
The Ukranian can sometimes become passive from the baseline, and Parry's point construction and controlled aggression should be good enough for her to win a set.
Pick: Parry to win a set (-115 via BetMGM)
Arantxa Rus (-162) vs Julia Grabher (+134)
7 a.m. ET
Arantxa Rus qualified for Roland Garros without dropping a set, defeating Moyuka Uchijima 6-3, 7-6(4) in the final qualifying round. Rus won 62% of her service points and was broken three times. The Dutch won 43% of her return points and broke on four occasions.
Rus is now an incredible 20-5 on clay in 2023, with an ITF $40k (clay) title in Anapoima. For her career, the Dutch is a fantastic 391-188 on the dirt. Rus hits her spots on serve and utilizes her heavy, lefty forehand to control the baseline. Rus understands clay-court patterns very well and does a great job of constructing points to hide her weaker backhand. She also anticipates where her opponents are going well.
Julia Grabher made the final of last week's Rabat tournament, falling 4-6, 7-5, 5-7. Grabher won 57% of her service points, but was broken on six occasions. Grabher did manage to win 50% of her second-serve returns, breaking five times.
Grabher is a solid 10-7 on clay this season, with a strong 292-161 career-record on the dirt. Grabher's game is centered around her heavy, well-placed forehand. Her rally tolerance is strong and she understands clay-court patterns. Grabher's backhand is a liability, however, and she doesn't have overwhelming power.
She played five matches and 12 sets of tennis last week, spending over five hours on court between the semifinals and final. Fatigue is a major concern for the Austrian, who has to contend with a physical opponent in Rus.
Rus and Grabher have played three times, with Rus winning all six sets between the two. This is a good matchup for the Dutch, as Rus can pin Grabher in her backhand corner with her forehand cross-court. Grabher's backhand should be weakest shot on the court.
Her ability to play with controlled aggression is also at a higher level than Grabher's. She's able to better flatten out her groundstrokes and take control of points.
Pick: Rus -2.5 games (-114 via FanDuel)
