The first round of the French Open has arrived and I cannot wait for Sunday's fascinating showdowns!
I’ve found value on two of the first round matchups —Teichmann vs Errani and Pegula vs Collins.
Read on for my French Open predictions and expert picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing French Open matches.
WTA French Open Odds, Picks
Jil Teichmann (-290) vs Sara Errani (+225)
10:30 a.m. ET
Most recently, Jil Teichmann lost 6-2, 3-6, 2-6 to Emma Navarro in the second round of Strasbourg. Teichmann won just 49% of her service points, getting broken six times. But, the Swiss did win 45% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
Teichmann is historically a strong clay courter, with a 162-85 career-record on the dirt. However, this season the Swiss is just 3-5 on clay and 11-12 overall. Teichmann's rally tolerance has dipped and her backhand has become a liability. While she can dictate with her forehand at times, Teichmann lacks pop, with her shots sometimes sitting up in the court. She does move well, however.
Sara Errani fell 6-4, 5-7, 5-7 to Taylor Townsend in the semifinals of her most recent event in the Florence WTA $125k. Errani's serve – like normal – wasn't great, as she won just 54% of her service points and was broken seven times. But, the Italian did win 45% of her return points, including 43% on Townsend's first serve, and broke on six occasions.
Errani, a former French Open finalist, is 373-214 on clay as a professional. This season, Errani has a 10-6 record on the dirt, including a WTA $125k title in Contrexeville. The Italian has a high tennis IQ and understands clay-court tennis. She has excellent variety, with perfect job shots, great use of angles and cutting slices. In addition, the Italian is strong at the net and spreads the court well.
However, as is always the case with Errani, her game is underpowered.
She struggles the most against powerful players. But, Teichmann is struggling to control her groundstrokes when trying to play aggressively and has showcased limp baseline play otherwise.
Teichmann's backhand should be the weakest groundstroke on the court. Errani is such a cerebral player and will keep the ball on the Swiss' backhand wing.
Pick: Errani to win a set (-120 via PointsBet)
Jessica Pegula (-480) vs Danielle Collins (+350)
11 a.m. ET
Jessica Pegula last played in Rome where she fell 2-6, 6-3, 3-6 to Taylor Townsend in her first match. Pegula won 56% of her service points, getting broken four times. Pegula won just 32% of her return points, a shockingly low number, and broke just twice.
Pegula is now 6-3 on clay for the year and a solid 111-72 as a professional. But, the American's game doesn't work particularly well on clay. She is solid from the baseline, but her groundstrokes are flatter, sitting up more on clay. Pegula's serve and ground game also often look underpowered on clay. Pegula can turn into a more defensive, reactive player on the dirt, which isn't why she's currently at world No. 3.
Danielle Collins hasn't played since Charleston, where she lost 7-6(2), 4-6, 1-6 to Shelby Rogers in the first round. Collins won 56% of her service points, getting broken on five occasions. She won 44% of her second-serve returns and generated 10 break points, but broke just two times.
The loss to Rogers was Collins' only match on clay this year, but she's been historically strong on the dirt, with a 66-33 career-record. Collins has a big first serve and when she's playing well, hits with controlled aggression from the baseline. The American's backhand is particularly potent, enabling her to control the baseline. But, Collins has lost four of her last five matches, as her rally tolerance and control over her groundstrokes waver.
Pegula hasn't covered a (theoretical) 5.5-game spread in her last eight clay-court matches. Her struggles hitting through the clay and general lack of understanding of point construction on the surface hinder her ability to put the hammer down on her opposition.
Collins should be able to push Pegula around and hit through the slower surface. She likes to venture forward, but given Collins' offensive ability, it should be difficult for Pegula to find herself in the right court positioning to move forward.
Pegula's flat shots also won't take Collins out of her comfort zone and her serve shouldn't trouble Collins much at all. Collins should have ample opportunities to rip returns.
Pick: Collins +5.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)
