The third round of the US Open begins on Friday!
I’ve found betting value on two of the Friday matches, including a battle of the Americans.
Read on for my best bets and previews.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Coco Gauff (-152) vs. Madison Keys (+125)
2 p.m. ET
Coco Gauff defeated Elena Gabriela Ruse 6-2, 7-6(4) in the second round. Gauff was strong on return, winning 49% of her return points, including 45% on Ruse's first serve. The American served 67% of her first serves into play and won 77% of those points.
However, Gauff only won 35% of her second-serve points and hit eight double faults against Ruse.
Gauff is now 7-3 during the summer hard-court swing and 17-10 on hard courts for the season. Gauff is known for her powerful backhand that can dictate play and get her opponents on the move.
Madison Keys came back from *2-5 in the third, beating Camila Giorgi 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(6). Keys did not allow Giorgi to effectively attack her second serve, winning 63% of her second-serve points.
Keys, a former finalist at the US Open, has gone 7-3 during the summer-hard court swing, included a semifinals appearance at the Cincinnati WTA 1000 event. She plays power tennis, serving big and controlling the baseline with controlled aggression. The biggest factor for Keys is limiting her unforced errors.
She has already beaten Gauff in Adelaide on hard courts earlier this season. While Gauff has won 47% of her return points in New York so far, Keys' big serving should make it much harder for Gauff to get into her service games.
Keys' power game should be able to target Gauff's forehand, rushing her from that wing on the quick US Open courts and leading to unforced errors and short balls. Gauff's second serve is also a liability.
Go with Keys to get the job done.
Pick: Keys ML (+125 via FanDuel)
Caroline Garcia (-155) vs. Bianca Andreescu (+120)
7 p.m. ET
Caroline Garcia has now won 10 matches in a row, defeating Anna Kalinskaya 6-3, 6-1 in the second round. Garcia won 85% of her first serve points and didn't face a break point all match. She was also able to win 48% of her return points and break serve four times.
Overall, Garcia hit an impressive 22 winners compared to just 12 unforced errors during the match.
Before New York, Garcia won the title in Cincinnati. She's now a solid 239-197 on hard courts in her career and 28-4 since the start of Bad Homburg in June. The Frenchwoman has a huge first serve and tries to take the initiative in points whenever she can, backing it up with consistent strokes.
Bianca Andreescu took down Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-2, 6-4 in an impressive second-round victory. Andreescu won 67% of her service points and saved all five break points she faced. On return, Andreescu effectively attacked Haddad Maia's second serve, winning 69% of her second-serve return points.
Andreescu, who won the 2019 US Open, is healthy again after injury struggles. The Canadian has an all-around game. She holds onto the baseline effectively, moves well and transitioning from defense to offense smoothly. She gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes and changes the patterns of play during rallies with good timing.
The past two opponents Garcia has lost to – Lucia Bronzetti and Alize Cornet – did a great job of getting a lot of balls into play and shrinking the court for Garcia.
Andreescu has the foot speed and defensive abilities to also force Garcia to lower her margins further and overhit on her groundstrokes. Her opponents have already hit a combined 58 "unforced" errors in New York.
However, the Canadian can also not only step up and play with controlled aggressive, but the variety she employs will keep the ball out of Garcia's strike zone and make her very uncomfortable out there.
Pick: Andreescu ML (+120 via BetMGM)
