The US Open is heating up and we are into the third round!
I’ve found value on two of Friday's matchups: Badosa vs Ruse and Azarenka vs Wang.
Read on to find my Friday US Open tennis picks for Friday, August 30.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open tennis matches and seeing US Open tennis odds.
Friday US Open Tennis Picks
Paula Badosa (-550) vs Elena-Gabriela Ruse (+350)
11 a.m. ET
Paula Badosa continued her excellent form in the second round, beating Taylor Townsend 6-3, 7-5. Badosa won 76% of her first serves and 49% of her return points. the Spaniard is now 12-2 this summer on hard courts, including a title in Washington.
Badosa has a 167-96 career-record on hard courts, as well, showcasing long-term hard-court success. The 26-year old has hit the eighth-most aces on the WTA Tour this season (201). And, from the ground, Badosa has hit with incredible controlled aggression, especially recently. Badosa moves well and can absorb power, counterpunching effectively.
Badosa gets good depth from both wings, but she places her forehand better. And the Spaniard's backhand can break down under pressure at times.
Elena-Gabriela Ruse qualified for the US Open and continued her strong form in the main draw, defeating Barbora Krejcikova 6-4, 7-5 to advance to the third round. The Romanian won 78% of her service points and hit 28 winners against 15 unforced errors.
Ruse is now 10-4 on hard courts this year, with a strong 111-71 mark as a professional. The 26-year old has a huge first serve (although less aces this year as Badosa) and she positions herself aggressively in the court whenever possible. Ruse hits aggressive groundstrokes, taking time away from her opponents and dictating play, especially with her forehand.
However, the Romanian has mediocre great movement, her backhand breaks down under pressure and, while she played well against Krejcikova, she can become erratic from the baseline.
Badosa is imposing her will this summer, hitting huge serves and ripping forehands with controlled aggression. The Spaniard is ripping control of the baseline away from her opponents and not allowing them to establish an offensive rhythm. This is especially important given Ruse's aggressive mindset.
In addition, Badosa has the rally tolerance and defensive skills to extend rallies and force Ruse to overhit, while also having the tennis IQ and control to get the ball onto her weaker backhand.
Finally, Badosa's overall Elo rating is 251.9 points higher than Ruse's and her hard-court Elo is 229.2 points above the Romanian's.
US Open Pick: Under 20.5 games (-145 via BetMGM)
Victoria Azarenka (-450) vs Yafan Wang (+340)
1 p.m. ET
Victoria Azarenka defeated Clara Burel 6-1, 6-4 to advance in New York. The Belarusian won 50% of her return points, 66% of her service points and was only broken once. She did hit 13 winners against 18 unforced errors, though.
Azarenka has a 30-13 overall record in 2024 with an impressive 20-8 mark on hard courts. However, watching her matches, the 35 year-old's record is deceiving. Azarenka is far from the player who won the Australian Open twice and made the US Open final three times.
While the Belarusian still hits a big first serve and huge groundstrokes, she's more erratic as she's gone on to the tail end of her career, with her backhand breaking down more easily. She's less mobile and doesn't hit precise targets with her forehand with quite the frequency that she used to.
Yafan Wang has been very impressive this event, dropping just six games in the three sets she's played. The Chinese beat Diane Parry 6-0, 6-4, breaking four times while not getting broken herself. However, Wang did hit 17 winners versus 22 unforced errors.
Wang has a 19-12 record on hard courts this season, with a strong 287-167 record for her career. While she was a bit looser from the ground against Parry then she would like, Wang is typically solid, gets good depth and anticipates where her opponents are hitting effectively. She can neutralize points successfully and turn defense into offense. While Wang doesn't have overwhelming baseline power, she can step up and hit into openings, especially with her forehand.
Wang is playing with confidence right now and will take solace in having taken a set from Azarenka this year in Washington (hard).
The Chinese has the anticipation and defensive skills to extend rallies, making the match more physical and drawing errors off of the Azarenka racquet. And Azarenka should start to feel the pressure and overhit from the ground, as well.
Wang does a great job of playing opportunistic offense, so when she has the chance to force the veteran Belarusian onto defense, she will take her chance.
US Open Pick: Wang to win a set (+106 via FanDuel)
